Tropical Trio

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is following three areas in the tropics as of Friday morning. Two are set to dump dangerous amounts of rain on their routes.

Tropical Storm Hanna

Hanna was upgraded from tropical depression number 8 late Thursday night.  It set a record for the formation of the earliest 8th Atlantic storm. It beat Harvey from August 8th, 2005. (Plenty of eights!)

The system is well organized with plenty of thunderstorm activity. Even though it is enjoying the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico without any upper air interference, it has yet to gain further strength.  All the indicators are there it will intensify some more, almost reaching hurricane status before landfall across Texas. Hurricane Hunters will be investigating the storm for additional info on this slow moving storm.

Hanna should move onshore by Saturday with heavy rain and gusty winds. Models call for amounts of 4 - 8 inches with spots getting as much as 12 through Sunday night. This will surely lead to localized flooding for the Texas / Louisiana Coasts and thru North Mexico.

Across Florida

Hanna will continue to spin moisture to its center, whipping some of it to South Florida. Sunny skies will be around but expect anytime downpours. The soggy soup will remain through the weekend.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo

This storm refuses to give up considering the obstacles it is facing. Its a small system surrounded by Saharan Dust and dry air, yet it manages to have some thunderstorm activity. If it can hold its own, it may get a chance to intensity. Not what the Windward Islands want to deal with this weekend.

Forecast Cone

What to the models say?

Gonzalo has a couple of things working for it: Little shear or strong upper winds to deal with, and some warm waters as it nears the islands.  A few of the models take this into account and suggest the system may grow into a hurricane before landfall. Then, as it moves into the Caribbean, it runs into some shear and falls apart by the early part of next week.

This is reflected in the cone of concern. High pressure keeps it moving west, possibly becoming a cat 1 Saturday just as it nears the islands. A recon plane will be investigating the storm.

For you throughout the Windwards, please follow the advice of your local governments regarding Gonzalo. Large amounts of rain are possible that may lead to flooding.

The rest of the Caribbean and South Florida: If indeed Gonzalo falls apart early next week, we will not have to worry.

Another Wave to Watch

NHC is also monitoring a tropical wave off the West Coast of Africa, roughly 300 miles SE of the Cape Verde Islands. They say once it moves into the area highlighted in yellow (where Gonzalo is now), it will get a 30% chance for development.  Plenty of time to watch.