Friday, August 18, 2017

Harvey, a Low, and a Wave.

As we move into the weekend, there is plenty to watch. We start with an area of clouds and rain east of the Lesser Antilles. It is an area of Low pressure with a high chance at becoming a depression or a Tropical Storm over the next few days.

The area has been deemed Invest92L, as a feature NHC would like to INVESTigate further. On satellite it shows up as a red dot towards the right of the picture.

Overnight, this low showed more thunderstorm activity as it moved in a west/northwesterly component at around 20 mph.

If more thunderstorms pop up, it could quickly become  a named system. So far no recon missions have been planned.

The chances for development are at 70%.  If it organizes into a storm it would be called "Irma".


If it does develop, where would it go?
Most models agree that in the short term, 3 - 5 days out, it will move northwesterly, tracking very close to Puerto Rico, Southeastern Bahamas, and Eastern Cuba. After that, it may even reach South Florida.



What does it have working for it?
It is traveling over warm waters and that can give it the fuel it needs to form. Even warmer waters lay ahead as it reaches the Bahamas and Florida Straits.

What does it have working against it?
Now nothing, but in a day or two, strong upper winds pop up that should knock it down or at least keep it in check.

Keep your eyes on this one just in case.

Another Wave to watch:
There is also a Tropical Wave just north of Hispaniola loaded with moisture and heading our way. Waves are very fickle, they can grow quickly or fall apart just as fast. If this one does not fall apart, it could brings us some downpours this weekend.


Tropical Storm Harvey:
It is impacting the Windward Islands with top winds of 40 mph. This is not a huge wind event, but more of a rain producer. Total accumulations of 2 - 4 inches are expected that will lead to localized flooding, land and mudslides.



Once it enters the Caribbean Sea, it should move mostly in a straight line missing most of the islands. Unfortunately it appears it will strike parts of Central America and Mexico, just under Cat 1 strength.



I'll keep you posted.

Thursday, August 17, 2017

Possible Tropical System Later Today

There's plenty of activity in the Tropics, but one area is on the verge of becoming a depression or even a Tropical Storm as early as this evening .  The National Hurricane Center started issuing advisories on this system, calling it "Potential Tropical Cyclone" number 9.  They are doing this before the actual system organizes to give residents in its path an earlier chance at preparations.
The "Nine" is next in line as far as the number of storms so far this season.

The area of low pressure is roughly 350-450 miles east of the Lesser Antilles with top winds of 35 mph.

A recon mission is scheduled for this afternoon and depending on what it finds, they may upgrade its status.

A closer look at satellite imagery shows an impressive spin just East of the Bahamas, THIS IS NOT the one being tracked. This is an area of low pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere. It may cause some rain across the SE Bahamas, but it is NOT tropical.

The area being tracked by NHC is the small spin just east of the Lesser Antilles.

Even if it does not develop, gusty winds will impact islands of the Lesser Antilles on Friday, with possible rain amounts of 2 - 4 inches for Martinique south to Grenada. This will bring along the threat of flooding, land and mudslides.

Watches and Warnings have been issued for the following areas:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area,in this case within 24-36hrs.
A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm conditions are   possible within  watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours.


Where is it headed?

This Potential Tropical Storm (Will be named Harvey), will be a big worry for everyone down the road. After its run-in with the Lesser Antilles, it will shoot a straight line across the Caribbean until reaching Central America.

Intensity forecasting is very difficult and with so much hot water in this area for fuel, this system has a chance to grow strong.


We'll be watching

Tuesday, August 15, 2017

Tropics are Heating Up

Five areas to watch over the next few days, 
two of which may be headaches down the road.

As of Wednesday morning, we are looking at 5 areas in the Atlantic Basin.
The tropical activity stretches from Hurricane "Gert" in the Western Atlantic to a wave in the Caribbean, two lows in the Mid Atlantic, and another wave off the West Coast of Africa.




Lets review each:

  1. Hurricane Gert: Tied Former Hurricane "Franklin" Tuesday night, for strongest system in 2017 with top winds of 85 mph. A front will move off the East Coast of USA on Wednesday keeping "Gert" away from any land areas. This will be a "Marine Hurricane" or an open water storm.  It should die out sometime over the weekend as it moves over the "Hurricane Graveyard" or the cold waters of the Northern Atlantic.
  2. Tropical Wave in Caribbean: This is a very weak wave with little moisture. Its moving Northwest and if it can survive, the northern edge of the wave may push some added downpours to South Florida, by the end of the week. Waves are very fickle, they can grow quickly or fall apart just as fast. We'll be watching it.
  3. Broad Area of Low Pressure: This feature has a medium chance for development as it moves west. It may be a worry for the islands next week.
  4. Broad Area of Low Pressure: This is traveling North/Northwest. This too has a medium chance of becoming a depression of a tropical storm over the next 5 days.
  5. Tropical Wave: This is just coming off the West Coast of Africa today. NHC is giving it a medium chance for development through next Monday.

Lets focus on Features Three and Four

This is what the National Hurricane Center is saying about the chances each of them have to develop over the next 5 days. If they do form, it should happen somewhere over the areas highlighted. This is NOT a forecast path, but the area models think something may form.

The two Lows are the ones I am watching closely.

The nearest one to the Lesser Antilles is roughly 1000 miles to the East, traveling towards the islands at around 15 - 20 mph.

It has been deemed "Invest91L" as it is an area NHC would like to INVESTigate further.

This area of clouds and rain should navigate into the Caribbean Sea sometime on Friday,

There is a chance it could develop just before crossing over from the Atlantic.

Conditions become less favorable for organization once it enters the Eastern Caribbean Sea.

Early Model Runs on Invest91L:
Models need a good staring point in order to provide an accurate forecast track. Since nothing has organized yet, there is no center fix, therefore they are just offering an educated guess.

If something were to happen with Invest91L, it appears the most likely course will be west over the Lesser Antilles and then the Caribbean.

For you across the Islands, this is a good opportunity to review your supplies just in case Mother Nature whips up a storm.

We are hoping nothing develops, but preparation is always best.

Early Model Runs on Invest92L:
This broad low is situated a few hundred miles west/southwest of Cape Verde. Its moving west/northwest at around 15 - 20 mph. It has a short window of opportunity for development.


First, it has to battle Saharan Dust (shown in the orange shades) which is depriving it of much needed moisture to grow. The dust is encroaching the northern sector of the Low. Second, upper air conditions turn hostile by the weekend.

The models show if anything develops, it will border the Bermuda high sitting to its north and possibly aim for the Bahamas.


Why so much activity?
We are diving head first into a mini season within the hurricane season, known as "Cape Verde Season".

This time of year, disturbances come off the West Coast of Africa and either go over or near the Cape Verde Islands, with some developing down the road. This is why the season is named after the islands.

"Cape Verde Season" runs from Mid August thru October.

These systems tend to be stronger and last longer than most.

The good take away from all this, is that dozens and dozens of these disturbances emerge into the Atlantic, but only one or two organize and go on to become hurricanes.



By the way the peak of hurricane season is right around the corner, that being September 10th.





Saturday, August 12, 2017

New Depression #8

Tropical Depression Number 8 is forecast to become a Tropical Storm on Sunday.

As of 11pm Saturday night, NHC is tracking Depression number 8. Its sitting roughly 250-300 miles Northeast of the Southeastern Bahamas. Its top winds were clocked at 35 mph, but they should grow stronger Sunday with a chance to become a Tropical Storm. If it does intensify, it will be called Tropical Storm "Gert".


Earlier in the day satellite imagery showed the circulation had become better defined and by nighttime the system's spin had improved. This is why it was upgraded to Depression Status.

It has a chance to grow even stronger as it moves over warmer waters with a favorable shear free environment. But it may also encounter some dry air down the road limiting its potential for intensification.

NHC adds:

The statistical guidance and the HWRF favor more significant 
intensification than the global models, which generally do 
not show much deepening.  In deference to the global models, 
the NHC forecast is below the consensus, especially later in
the period. 

Later in the forecast around Wednesday, the depression will leave the tropical region and start losing its identity.

Where is it headed?:
This system should mainly be a worry for the shipping lanes as it is forecast to remain offshore and away from land areas. Even Bermuda should stay clear of this system. .





Chances Growing for Atlantic Low

As of Saturday morning an area of low pressure in the Western Atlantic has a high chance of becoming our next depression or tropical storm.  The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving it a 60% chance for growth in 48 hours, higher chances over five days.  If it were to develop it would do so in the area highlighted in red.

The reason for the higher chances, is that the strong upper level winds (Shear) that was keeping it disorganized have weakened. The low now has breathing room to grow.

As of this update it appears the system , if it develops, should stay away from land and over the open waters of the Atlantic.



The low is just over 100 miles northeast of the Turks & Caicos (SE Bahamas) and looking a little better organized. It will continue to move northwest at around 15 - 20 mph.

The satellite loops shows areas of oranges and reds trying to spin around a fixed center. These are globs of thunderstorms coming together.

If those areas completely close off, looking like a ring, that's an indicator a system has formed.

As of this update, Hurricane Hunters are not scheduled to investigate.

The Turks and Caicos, as well as the Southeastern Bahamas, may get some rain from this Low as it travels nearby.

Where is it Going?
The models are pretty much in unanimous agreement that this low will stay away from any land areas. They suggest the Bermuda high will move East, then a front will move from Central USA to the Coast acting as a roadblock. This will leave only one path for the low to take and thats between Bermuda and the East Coast.  Even Bermuda appears to be outside the projected path. (The black line is base line, not a track or an outlier model)



Even though there may be a track consensus among models, they are not all humming the same tune when it comes to something actually forming.

This is the Canadian Model showing a tight title circle East of Jacksonville indicating good formation by August 14th.

The European Model however, shows a small ring around the same time, suggesting a much weaker or non existent depression or storm.


How strong could it be?
The intensity of a system is one of the most difficult criteria to forecast. The graph has the wind speed on the left and the hours on the bottom.  Notice between 72 and 96 hours, the models show the system near hurricane strength, then quickly loosing steam. ((CLICK ON IMAGE FOR LATEST RUN))


Remember these forecast track projections are not set in stone. Areas even far away from the center can still get impacted by the system. Remember Tropical Storm "Emily" just last month? Even though it moved over Central Florida, our area got hit hard with heavy rain leading to street flooding.

As always this is a good opportunity to review your hurricane plans and supplies just in case Mother Nature throws us a curve ball.

We will keep monitoring and informing you if there are any changes.


Thursday, August 10, 2017

Drenching Wave

An area of disturbed weather ( tropical wave ) is moving over South Florida dumping heavy rain. As of this update,  Ft. Lauderdale has already set a record for rain accumulation and more is expected.

This wave will continue to make its way west into the Gulf. Even though the models suggest it will move into the Gulf by Friday, chances for rain will stay high as waves tend to carry more moisture on the back side.



This wave popped up yesterday afternoon across the Bahamas and has quickly moved our way. The Bahamas Meteorology Department issued this statement on Wednesday, which still stands today.

THE SYSTEM COULD TRIGGER POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS TODAY AND TOMORROW, RESULTING IN POSSIBLE FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS.

This is live radar which will keep you updated on where the rain is falling. Street flood advisories have been issued on and off in South Florida,, and more will probably be issued if the downpours continue.

In the Tropics:
NHC was following three features on Wednesday, they are down to two; The wave over Florida and a disturbance near the Leeward Islands. Hurricane Franklin made landfall overnight across Central Mexico and has rained itself out. The wave over Florida has a 10% chance for development as it moves into the Gulf, and the disturbance East of the Leeward Islands has a 40% chance.

Most models keep this away from Florida and most of the Bahamas. We'll keep you posted.


Wednesday, August 9, 2017

Watching a Pesky Wave

We've been following an area of disturbed weather in the Atlantic Ocean with the potential to develop since last week.  Its formation chances were as high as 80% on Friday, dropping as low as 20% on Monday, only to come back up to 40% on Tuesday. The cause of the downturn was a combo of drier air and strong upper level winds. This helped keep it in check.


  • The satellite image shows a swirl of clouds roughly 400 miles east of the Leeward Islands. 
  • The orange and red colors represent where the thunderstorms are developing.
  • As of this update, most of the rain is in a straight line more or less, from SW to NE.

If the rain starts to spin around a center, this is a clear sign we may have a developed system on our hands.

Some shear, or strong upper level winds, is still impacting the disturbance as it moves west/northwest across the Atlantic Ocean.

Is there a chance it could become a depression or a tropical storm?

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) does not anticipate any development over the next 48 hours due to shear, but by the weekend however, it could be a different story.

NHC is giving it a 40% chance that it could develop in the area highlighted in orange.

Those strong upper level winds should be done by then providing a calm environment for the disturbance to grow.

The Shear is expected to return by Sunday night surrounding whatever has developed near the Bahamas.

Where may it go?
Most models are keeping whatever develops, away from land. The black line you see in the graph is a persistence model. It basically means, that if the system has been moving NW for the last 24 hours, it should continue moving NW in the next 24 hours.  Its just a "general idea" type of model.

Also keep in mind that models need a good starting point in order to provide a good ending point. So far, nothing has developed, so there's no good starting point. These projections are just an educated guess by the models. Many factors can still come into play, like water temperatures, upper level winds, and tropical moisture that can impact a forecast path.

In the short term,  the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico, will see the possibility of some showers & thunderstorms by Friday.



The Worry Meter:
As of this update, it is low. Keep checking back over the next day or two to see if anything has finally formed. Given the time of year, and placement, I wouldn't be surprised if something does organize. This is a good time to review your supplies just in case Mother Nature throws us a curveball.





kjkh

Tuesday, July 4, 2017

New Tropical Storm?

On this 4th of July, Mother Nature may be providing some fireworks of her own in the Eastern Atlantic. An area of disturbed weather roughly 800 miles WSW of the Cape Verde Islands may be entering an area favorable for further development. We may have a tropical storm over the next 24 - 48 hours. If it does develop, it will called "Don".

Latest Data:
The broad low has a surface pressure of about 1009 mb. The Satellite image suggests strong thunderstorm action within 120 nautical miles of the alleged center and a cloud spin extending away from the center a good 300 nm.

Top winds have been clocked at Gale Force, roughly 30 miles per hour in only one area, near the SE part of the low.

The cloud pattern doesn't look any different than on Monday, yet today NHC is giving it a 70% chance for organization in 48 hours and 80% over 5 days.



Where may it organize?
The broad low will inch towards the west thru much of the day then pick up speed later tonight at around 10 - 15 mph. If this broad area of low pressure does develop, it will do so anywhere in the area highlighted in red.



Once it develops, where is it heading?
(Keep in mind nothing has developed yet and without a good starting point for the models to use, they can't give us a good ending point. Right now these are just an educated guess.)

High pressure will be pushing whatever develops to the west in the short term. By days 3 - 5, a weakness appears in the high allowing the system to take more of a NW track.

That track will place it near the Leeward Islands or Central Atlantic. The islands should keep monitoring it just in case.

For the moment across South Florida & the Bahamas, the worry meter is on low. Check back periodically for further updates.

Monday, July 3, 2017

New Invest

NHC is watching a broad area of low pressure way out in the Eastern Atlantic. It has been deemed Invest 94L, as it is an area the Center would like to INVESTigate further. So far this low has been sitting still, or moving slowly west, over the last day or so.

It remains roughly 700 miles SW of the Cape Verde Islands, at times showing signs of additional thunderstorm formation.

This low is also almost 3 thousand miles away from South Florida. We have plenty of time to see what, if anything, develops.

It could become a depression or a storm over the next few days. It has a 70 percent chance that it could spin up into something stronger, but that growth-window may not be open too long.
 

As it begins to move Northwest, it may develop anywhere in the area highlighted in red. It will have warmer waters with little wind sheer.

It may be able to stay south long enough of dry Saharan Air to its North. We'll be monitoring that. The Leeward Islands should monitor its progress just in case.



If it can somehow garner enough strength to develop, its expected to run into some strong upper level winds in about 5 days that could either weaken it or destroy it.

The area in yellow shows upper winds at the moment. They are blowing at around 20 - 30 mph, but by the weekend they'll be zooming out of the SW at around 50 - 70 mph.

That could cut down the cloud tops of any developing t-storms.




In the eventuality that it does develop,  where is it headed?
Early models are placing it near the Leeward Islands by the weekend. Take these models with a grain of salt.

Nothing has developed yet and since there is no good starting point for the models to use, they can't offer us a good ending point so use this as an educated guess as to where it may be in 5 days.


We'll keep you posted.

Monday, June 19, 2017

Potential Tropical Cyclone...what?

We start the week with a new term in the world of hurricane tracking, a Potential Tropical Cyclone. Once understood, its a basic and simple idea. Its more of a procedural thing actually. This now allows the hurricane center to issue advisories on a system that has yet to develop.

In the past, NHC needed something, a sub tropical system or a depression to form in order for tracking to begin and for locations in its path to start getting ready.  There was a risk to the old method. What if something is aiming for you for days and doesn't develop until just before landfall. It could be devastating. It doesn't even need to be of storm or hurricane strength to cause problems. Remember all the rain here about a week ago, without a tropical system?

So the National Hurricane Center came up with a way of initiating advisories even before a system develops and they call it "Potential Tropical Cyclone".

We have the very first one just East of the Windward Islands and it could impact the region by Monday night.

It carries the number 2 with it for consistency since we've already had "Arlene" which became a Tropical Storm in the Atlantic between April 19th and 21st.

Once this low in the Atlantic reaches maturity it will then carry the second name on the hurricane list, Bret.

Radar and advisories:

Tropical Storm Warnings are in place for the following:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* Trinidad
* Tobago 
* Grenada
The government of Barbados has discontinued its Tropical Storm
Warning.


This system will continue to move west through the Southern Caribbean and models suggest it may fall apart in the middle of the Caribbean Sea in about 5 days.



More rain for South Florida?
We may have a similar situation developing closer to us. NHC is following an area of disturbed weather with a very high chance for development. Its been this way for awhile now and has yet to form.

It remains as a huge area of clouds and rain in the Western Caribbean Sea drenching the region. It is forecast to eventually move into the Gulf.

Because of its proximity to land, advisories may be started here as well even before the system develops.

For South Florida and even the NW Bahamas, some of this rain could get spun in our direction. It may be soggy for a few more days.

Please check back every so often for updates regarding this disturbance. Even if nothing happens, its a good way to check your supplies.




Sunday, June 18, 2017

UPDATED Tropical System in the Gulf?

As of 5 pm Sunday:
Potential Tropical Storm Advisory issued for the Windward Islands. 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING has been issued for Barbados, St, Vincent, and the Grenadines for the possible impact of tropical storm force winds over the next 36 hours. 
This is new this year. NHC can start issuing advisories even before a system organizes. This can give communities the extra time they need to prepare. 


The area of disturbed weather is roughly 815 miles ESE of the Windward Islands and moving rapidly towards them at around 23 mph. It is expected to get stronger and could reach tropical storm status on Monday as it nears the islands.
All interests across the Windward Islands and Northern Venezuela should prepare accordingly.

2 PM UPDATE: Latest satellite observations show the broad area of low pressure in the Western Caribbean Sea DOES NOT have a well defined center. The Recon mission for this afternoon has been cancelled.  This area of clouds and rain is still producing heavy downpours and still has a high chance for development over the next few days.  Hurricane hunters remain on stand-by for Monday.

Sunday morning post:
There is a high chance we may be tracking something in the Gulf this coming week.  As of Sunday morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is following a broad area of low pressure sitting in the Northwestern Caribbean Sea. It is slowly moving into the Gulf of Mexico and regardless of development, it will dump plenty of rain.  NHC is giving this feature a 90% chance for development over the next 5 days. A hurricane Hunter plane is scheduled to fly into the area Sunday afternoon if needed.


This enhanced satellite loop detects the areas of highest rainfall in bright yellows, oranges, and reds.

It is centered over Western Cuba, Gand Cayman, and the Yucatan Peninsula with plenty of rain coming down over the region.

We are looking for the possibility of a counterclockwise spin with this low. It has been trying to do that for the last 24 hours.

What we really need is to get the vital signs, specially surface winds and pressure readings. The only way we can do the is with a recon mission. Because NHC wants to Investigate this area further, it has been named INVEST93L.

FLOODING

Image posted on Twitter by Jamaica Gleaner. Follow them for more pictures
Rain continues to be a big factor throughout the Western Caribbean Sea. 

Jamaica had been under flood advisories throughout Saturday, and those may get extended if the downpours persist. The Jamaica Gleaner News tweeted pictures of flooded areas like this one showing the Milk River in Clarendon. 

REGIONAL RADAR
Grand Cayman, Western Cuba, and parts of Central America are also under the threat of rain as the system organizes and moves into the Gulf. The weather will continue to go down hill for them as well.   



Models:
More models are issuing forecast tracks today, and at least on the short term, they are taking whatever develops into the Gulf, and then possibly aiming it anywhere between Texas. Louisiana, and Florida. 

Keep in mind that models need a good starting point to issue their forecast tracks and since nothing has developed yet, no good starting point means no good ending point.



South Florida:
Our long range outlook depends on whatever happens in the Gulf during the next few days. Even if a system develops and aims for Louisiana or Texas, we may get some downpours. 

If it takes a turn towards Northern Florida, more rain may be expected. This is a good time to review your plans and make sure you have everything you need in case Mother Nature throws us a curve ball.  We'll keep you posted.


Another Worry?

Another area of low pressure is sitting roughly 1000 miles ESE of the Windward Islands and aiming for the are at around 20 mph. It has a 50% chance of becoming a depression or a tropical storm over the next few days. A recon mission has been planned for Monday to get a better idea of the development process within this low.
Models:
As mentioned above, these are preliminary outlooks and until we get a fix on a possible center they are not set in stone. These early tracks show a consistent movement to the middle of the Caribbean Sea. If it develops, it could impact everyone from the Windward Islands to Jamaica, Haiti, Dominican Republic, Cuba and Grand Cayman.  Its impossible to tell how strong or weak this may be as it tracks through the region so please monitor closely.


I'll be hoping for the best.







Saturday, June 17, 2017

Recon on Stand-by

An area of low pressure sitting in the Western Caribbean Sea is looking healthier.  A hurricane hunter plane is now on stand by to check the disturbance on Sunday.  Satellite imagery suggests a broad low has formed and t-storm activity is showing the start of organization. NHC is giving it an 80% chance for development over the next 5 day.

This is an enhanced satellite loop centered just East of the Yucatan Peninsula. The brighter orange and red colors represent the higher cloud tops.

The higher cloud tops is where you will find the strongest storms.

The storms are trying to rotate counterclockwise and form a closed circle. When that happens, its a sure sign we have an organized system.

As of Saturday afternoon, a strong upper wind to the north was stopping that from happening.

NHC says:   Regardless of development, heavy rains are likely over portions of Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, Cayman Islands, and Western Cuba over the next few days.

Jamaica Advisories:
Flood advisories have been in effect for much of the country. They will probably be extended in some way through Sunday.
  • A Flash Flood Warning for low-lying and flood-prone areas of St. Mary, Portland, St. Thomas, Kingston and St. Andrew, St. Catherine, Clarendon, Manchester, Trelawny and St. Ann.
  • A Flash Flood Watch for low-lying and flood-prone areas of St. Elizabeth, Westmoreland, Hanover and St. James., Clarendon, Manchester, Trelawny and St. Ann.

Grand Cayman will see a chance for on and off downpours as the low intensifies and moves northwest. This is the Cayman radar.



Forecast Models:
Model runs at this stage are very unreliable. They need a good starting point or a good spin, in order to forecast a track. Right now they are just providing an educated guess.



This is what the first few projections are showing. The black triangle forecast is a simplistic track... it shows, whichever way the low is moving now, is where it will continue to go.

But many things can influence a trajectory, fronts, upper winds, even other nearby lows.
Some of the other models here take that into account.

Formation Areas:
One reason why we are watching this low carefully is because of the area it is being born. System that are spawned here tend to, on average, move into the Gulf impacting areas from Mexico to Cuba and Florida.

Hopefully nothing much comes from this and at most its just a good way to make sure you are ready in case something threatens South Florida. Stay tuned.

The figures show the zones of origin and tracks for different months during the hurricane season. These figures only depict average conditions. Hurricanes can originate in different locations and travel much different paths from the average. Nonetheless, having a sense of the general pattern can give you a better picture of the average hurricane season for your area.

fdgdfgdf

Tuesday, June 13, 2017

Caribbean Development?

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is keeping its eyes on an area of the Caribbean that could sprout a low pressure system in the days ahead. Nothing is there now but models are hinting at something developing that may drop plenty of rain across parts of the Yucatan Peninsula,  Central America, and maybe Western Cuba.

The "Worry Meter" is very low on this for South Florida & the Bahamas, but it is worthy of watching since it will be sitting over an area extremely favorable for storms to form.

In the month of June, the Caribbean Sea & Gulf of Mexico are the primary spots for emerging tropical activity. Typical tracks are to the Gulf States and Florida.

NHC says:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and adjacent land areas by the weekend.
Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while
it moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
 

Other Activity:
There are a handful of tropical waves moving East to West in the Atlantic Basin. While it may look impressive, most are proving much needed rain through the region. This is average and nothing to worry about. In the Pacific, the remnants of Tropical Storm "Calvin" is still dumping rain across Southern Mexico.


What to do now:
Keeping checking back over the next few days for further developments.