Island Advisories?

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings may be issued on Tuesday for islands in the Lesser Antilles.

A tropical wave attached to an area of low pressure is being watched for tropical development. This feature is also known as Invest 92 L. Invest for an area NHC would like to INVEST-igate further, 92 is a tracking number, and "L" stands for Atlantic Basin.

Latest Data

• Located: About 750 miles East of the Lesser Antilles 
• Moving: Rather quickly to the West at around 15 - 20 mph.

Satellite Loop

More storms were starting to develop overnight and the low is showing signs of organization, yet 92L is still lacking a well defined center of circulation. The spin remains broad and stretched out with some Saharan Dust to its north impeding its growth process. 

Chances for Development

NHC suggests conditions will improve shortly, giving 92L an opportunity to develop. Chances are up to at 90%, that it will become a depression or a storm over the area shaded in red.

Latest Models

If the system develops, it appears it will track NW towards the Leeward Islands then crossing over to Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic & Haiti and eventually moving over the Bahamas. Some models take the system into Florida as well. But these model runs are still uncertain as nothing has organized.  It is still too early to know where it may end up. We'll get a better idea once the Hurricane Hunters have flown into the low.

Even if it doesn't develop, heavy rain & gusty winds will impact parts of the Leeward Islands on Wednesday and then the Virgin Islands & Puerto Rico thru Thursday.

A recon plane is set for later today to get a better idea of the system's health. It is moving over warmer waters and that could be just enough of a punch to kick up its wind speeds and get it classified.

We'll be watching