Tropical Storm Gonzalo

As of Wednesday morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC), upgraded TD 7 to Tropical Storm, "Gonzalo".

Satellite View

It is looking healthy with good banding. NHC says, "a hint of an eye" is emerging in the center. If it continues unimpeded it could become a hurricane in 24 hours. The system has a very small wind field with the strongest gusts in a small area just to the north of the center.

Working for it:

• The system is better organized with more thunderstorms developing
• For the moment it is enjoying warm waters to feed on , with very little in the atmosphere to weaken it. This should allow it to strengthen rapidly.

Working against it:

• There is a bit of dry air in the form of Saharan dust to its west, shown as a light brown sheen on the sat view above.
• It is a small system and it can get easily pushed around and influenced by other weather features. Unfortunately they can weaken it but also strengthen it.

Need to know

• This is the earliest we have reached a "G" named storm. The prior record was "Gert" from July 24th, 2005. Phil Klotzback from Colorado State University, notes that by this time in 2005, we already had 3 hurricanes with 2 major systems (Dennis & Emily).
• Gonzalo is the first tropical storm to actually develop from a tropical depression, all the others this season have formed from sub-tropical systems. 

Where is it going?

This is the forecast cone from NHC, as of 11 am Wednesday. It shows Gonzalo moving west pushed along by high pressure in the Atlantic.  For the next three days it will move due west at around 10 - 15 mph . By the weekend it is expected to impact the Windward Islands with gusty winds and possible torrential rain and high surf. After it leaves the Windward Islands, it should start making more of a northwestern turn.

With a small system, forecasting strength is always troublesome.
NHC says Gonzalo is presently in an environment that may allow for further strengthening. Two models, the SHIPS & HWRF, turn Gonzalo into a hurricane and keep it like that for for the next 5 days.

On the other hand, they say the GFS, UKMET, ECMWF, and Canadian models keep it weak or dissipate it in the same time frame.

This intensity fluctuation is reflected in the forecast cone. NHC keeps it as a hurricane for about 2 days, then bring it down to tropical storm status.

Down the road, Gonzalo should encounter some shear, or strong upper level winds, along with drier air, that may help weaken it. Let's keep fingers crossed.

What to Expect:

• For the Windward Islands: If forward speed does not change, gusty winds and rain should start arriving on Saturday. Watches and warnings may go up soon for your area. Check with local governments.
• Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, and Haiti: Monitor the system on Sunday. 
• Jamaica and Eastern Cuba: you should watch the location of Gonzalo on Monday.
• The NW Bahamas, Central Cuba, and South Florida: It is still too far away to tell what if any impacts this system will have. There are too many IFS.   IF it can survive the shear, IF it can survive the dry air, IF it can survive any land interactions- It may be close to the area in 7 to 10 days.

This is is a good reminder that we are in the midsts of hurricane season. Review your plans and supplies. Check ahead with your doctor for any meds you may need.  As of this writing we are NOT expecting anything in South Florida, but when any system makes it into the Caribbean Sea, it is a good idea we keep our eyes on it.

We'll be watching