Disorganized #9

Satellite imagery shows Potential Tropical Storm 9 (PTS9) looking ragged, yet holding its own.

The system remains elongated and tilted in a SSW to NNE angle. The challenge this Wednesday will be for Hurricane Hunters to find the elusive center of circulation so a proper forecast cone can be issued.

More rain and thunderstorms are developing which is one indicator PTS9, could become a full tropical storm by the name of Isaias.

Latest Data:

• The broad circulation is now in the Eastern Caribbean Sea. 
• Feeder bands extend from the Leeward Islands to the North Coast of Venezuela 
• Winds have picked up from 40 to 45 mph. 
• Heavy rain persists across the Leeward Islands

Forecast Cone

Due to the fact there is no organized center of circulation, it is very difficult for models to give an accurate forecast cone. Shown here from NHC, is a highly probable track. Until there's a good fix on the center, the cone will remain uncertain, specially in days 3 thru 5.  South Florida, Cuba,  and the Bahamas should monitor closely. Many things can change in the next 24-48 hrs. with the cone.

Track Thinking

• High pressure remains the driving force in pushing the system west.  It will remain in place through Thursday.This will place PTS9 near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.  
• The system nay get a little stronger before it moves over Dominican Republic and Haiti.  
• The high terrain of Hispaniola will have an impact on the system, weakening its structure. 
• The high will then retreat late Thurs/early Fri. opening the door for the system to make a northwest turn. PTS9 will also slow down its forward speed. 

As it travels into the Florida Straits PTS9 will contend with 2 features; Warmer Water & Strong upper levels winds known as shear. The shear could keep it weak while at the same time, the warmer waters could give it some fuel to grow.

Even if it doesn't get any stronger, PTS9 will be a big rain maker.  

The forecast calls for:

1. Leeward Islands & Virgin Islands: 3" - 6"
2. Puerto Rico: 3" - 6" with up to 10 in spots
3. Dominican Republic, parts of Haiti, Turks & Caicos: 3" - 6" with some areas as much as 10"
4. Inagua Islands: 4" - 8" up to 12" in spots
5. Windward Islands: 1" - 3"

All this rain will lead to flooding, land and mudslides in many areas. Heed the advice of your local officials.

Until a center can be found., the forecast is dubious. The track can shift depending on where the center is actually found, strong upper winds impacting the system, and how fast it's moving. For South Florida and the Bahamas, prepare for the possibility of pockets of heavy rain and tropical storm force winds over the weekend. Be prepared for changes to the forecast as new data comes in. This is a great reminder we should be prepared for whatever Mother Nature sends our way.

We'll be watching