Atlantic Sat Image

Atlantic Sat Image
Clouds over Atlantic

Wednesday, January 20, 2016

Hottest year since the 1800's

Last year was the hottest by far across the world according to a report issued by NASA and NOAA.

On Wednesday, January 20th, NASA provided data showing global temps rising from 1970 thru 2015. The graph shows a steady rise in world wide temps starting around mid 20th century.

The info was compared using numbers from 1880 until 1899 when fossil fuel emissions were almost non existent. They concluded that since then, the earth has warmed up almost 2° Fahrenheit.  Most climatologists suggest this may be the tipping point where climate change may not be reversible.

The starting image begins in the early 70s as we are still relatively average....

And finish with imagery from the last 4 years showing a warmer planet.
 NASA adds, the same referenced time frame shows a continuation of a long term trend of global warming.

The heat was not only here , according to NASA,  "the month of December, 2015, 29 US states had the warmest December on record by nearly 6 degrees F, and parts of Europe also had a record warm December", they add  "the current El Niño has played a part in the warming, but 2015 would be a record with or without El Niño."

As you know, in 2015, South Florida had the hottest year since records have been kept starting in the late 1800's and also the warmest December on record. 

Local NWS says:
Lead NWS Miami Meteorologist Robert Molleda said, “If one word can describe South Florida’s weather in 2015, it would be HOT,” he concluded by saying, “It will go down as the hottest year on record at all four main climate sites.” 

Tuesday, January 19, 2016

Cold now, Cold later

Wake up temps on Wednesday should be in the low 50°s over many areas across Dade and Broward, with the Keys possibly seeing the mid to upper 50°s. Clouds will remain intermittent as they are seen on satellite stretching all the way back to the Yucatan Peninsula.

By the afternoon, temps should return to mild readings with highs in the low to mid 70°s.

We will then continue our temperature roller coaster ride as we head into the weekend, and the early part of next week as yet another front invades the region.

The next front is presently sitting over Texas. It will move our way and should provide some rain by Friday, but just how much is still not clear. The reason for the uncertainty, is the possible emergence of a low by Cuba.

Two things can happen:
The European model suggests a low brewing just to our South, possibly over Cuba, and moving North.

This may help spark some strong storms by the end of the week over South Florida.

Scenario 2:
The GFS model is not so bullish on the developing low.

If this is to be, then we should just get some rain without the threat of nasty weather.

Right now all we can do is wait, see, and monitor the area just to our South for any possible organization.

If it does come about:
After it leaves us, it may ride right up the East Coast dropping rain, and Snow throughout its path. Something they will have to keep an eye on.

This is what NWS National is saying:
Monitoring the possibility of a major winter storm affecting the Northeast later this week, including the possibility of heavy snow for the urban corridor extending from Washington, DC, to New York and Boston Friday into Sunday. Based on the anticipated storm track, as much as 1 to 2 feet of snow is possible near and northwest of I-95. Coastal flooding is also likely.

The low may be across the Southeast, aiming for the Northeast by Friday morning.

Thursday, January 14, 2016

Weird Wacky Weather

Record heat in December, warm Christmas along the East Coast, cloudy and rainy in January, and now a hurricane in the Atlantic.

Is there an explanation for this? Many blame El Niño. We've been hearing about it since before the start of hurricane season 2015.

According to Scientific American, "the current 2015–16 El Niño is one of the three strongest ever recorded. The other two occurred in 1982–83 and 1997–98".   Many in the media are referring to it as 'The Godzilla El Niño".  Worst yet, it should hit its peak this winter.

For those who may not know, El Niño is a warming of the equatorial waters of the Pacific Ocean. It messes with marine and atmospheric currents alike making for wet conditions in typically dry areas and vise versa.

This phenomenon may cause nasty storms that impact the west coast of the US, but not all storms are sparked by El Niño. Again, in an article by Scientific American, they explain, "storms may be influenced by “El Niño but not one storm can be called “an El Niño storm.”

However, there is something that may be a direct impact. The warming of the Pacific waters caused a very active 2015 Pacific season. Here's the end-of-season report from NHC:

For the 2015 hurricane season overall, the basin was very active
with 18 named storms, 13 hurricanes, and 9 major hurricanes. There
were three unnamed tropical depressions and another tropical
depression that formed in the basin that became a tropical storm
(Ela) in the central North Pacific. Activity for 2015 was well above
the long-term means of 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major
hurricanes. The number of major hurricanes observed in the basin in
2015 was the highest since reliable records began in 1971.

On the other hand, "El Niño" made for a quieter hurricane season in the Atlantic basin.

The bottom line is that Mother Earth is constantly changing and its difficult to pin point any one single entity responsible for all the "Strange" weather we've seen lately.

None stranger than a winter hurricane. As of  Thursday January 14th, there is a category 1 system in the Eastern Atlantic by the name of "Alex". It should impact the Azores before dissipating over the weekend in the cold waters of the Northern Atlantic.

So is this part of "El Niño"?, Not really. Most of "El Niño's" impacts tend to be across North America and parts of South America.  "Alex" may just be a fluke.

This is not without precedent: Back in 1938 a Hurricane developed on January 1st with winds of 80 mph. Then there was "Alice", which became a category 1 on December 31st 1954, and lingered into January of '55.

We will continue to monitor "El Niño", the melting of Polar Caps, and all the other climate factors influencing our weather. This winter may be more active than we'd like it to be.