Even though we are not in the cone of concern, we will feel some of Irene's wrath. we may get some gusty winds, pockets of heavy rain, and rough surf.
- Wind: By Thursday, it will be breezy with winds up to 30mph and some stronger gusts.
- Rain: We could see some of Irene's feeder band dump pockets of rain... but they will be fast movers.
- Surf: Choppy seas. Late Tuesday afternoon NWS added a Tropical Storm watch for coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet south to Ocean Reef. IT IS NOT FOR LAND AREAS. The advisory is to alert boaters not to venture over the Coastal waters as Irene approaches.
These are a few things we should watch out for:
- Further intensification: Yes, things could get worse for our friends in the Bahamas. Conditions remain favorable for it to reach cat 4 (winds of 131mph+) by Thursday. After that, it will juggle between a cat 3 and 4, as the eyewall is replaced . When systems are this powerful, its like a runner sprinting in a marathon, it can't do it, so it slows down to recoup, weakening, and then it runs off again at full speed. This is why the eyewall gets replaced.
- Will it make a turn?: That was something I had been looking for through all the recon data. Hurricane hunters now say it has begun turning more northwest, staying clear of Florida but still aiming for the northwestern Bahamas.
- East Coast worries: That's the next issue. The longer its delayed over the Bahamas, the more time strong upper level winds in the Nation's mid section can move to the coast and hopefully block Irene. Right now, models are split on this decision with some keeping Irene over land and others pushing it out to sea
To all our viewers with friends and family in the Bahamas, our prayers are with you. I presently have a team member scouring any and an all info we get from the Bahamas and will air what we get on our weather segments. Of course 7News has a team of reporters in the Bahamas to keep you up to date as weather permits.
For residents here with friends and family in the Middle Atlantic States and the Northeast... keep a watchful eye on the cone. If it changes, we'll let you know.
Hi Phil is it possible that since Irene is a large system in size that when and if it passes over the mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba it will not destroy Irene?
ReplyDeleteYes. The mountains may weaken it and not destroy it. If the center misses the terrain, then it could be a strong storm.
ReplyDeleteBy when would possible watches go up for our area, Mr. Ferro? Thank you, =).
ReplyDeleteAuthorities need around 72 hours to evacuate the Keys, so for them could be as early as Monday. Miami-Dade and Broward most likely on Tuesday.
ReplyDeletewhen would watches goup for the bahamas we in the way
ReplyDeleteCould see some go up Sunday night or early Monday morning.
ReplyDeleteWith Florida being spared year after year. According to scientist, are we due for a major storm to hit this year?
ReplyDeleteMr. Ferro, we live in Broward, East of I-95 by Hollywood Beach, do you thing we will be in the evacuating zone? and how strong you thing will be by then? I will appreciate any information you can give us.
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ReplyDeleteAnonymous, In Broward county everyone is urged to evacuate under any threat for those people living in mobile homes or areas prone to flooding. In case of a cat 1 or 2, everyone east of the intercoastal needs to evacuate.
ReplyDeleteHere's more http://www.broward.org/Hurricane/Pages/HurricaneEvacuationMap.aspx
Kscott The statisticians at the National Hurricane Center calculate that the coastline from Palm Beach County to Key West has averaged a hit from a Category 1 hurricane every four to five years. The last Broward impact was Wilma in 2005 and it wasn't a direct hit as it came ashore in SW Florida then tracked its way east.
ReplyDeleteWhen do you suggest to put up shutters will it be necessary even if we have iron bars on windows? Thanks
ReplyDeleteThe moment watches are issued you have 48 hours to put up your shutters. They are there to protect your from flying debris that can break your windows. Iron bars do not offer that protection.
ReplyDeleteI think Years ago we had a "Irene" that Dumped a lot of Rain on South Florida, Palm Beach got a couple of Feet I think, The Parking Lots were Flooded with 2 feet of water..
ReplyDeleteIf this storm was to hit Miami-Dade that would make the 2nd time a Hurricane Irene hit Miami???
ReplyDeletemy fly was cancel from ny to san juan today when you think puerto rico will be back to normal?
ReplyDeleteAnon: The earliest may be tomorrow afternoon, the latest... Tuesday.
ReplyDeleteDelvin, I believe you are right... We've had same name storms like "Gordon" impact Florida, once in 1994 and the other in 2000... but I can't recall another same name over the same spot. I'll look into it further.
ReplyDeletei hope its nothing like andrew it was also august 24
ReplyDeleteGood Morning Phil. Out of all the computer models which one is always the more accurate? Do you think we will be under any warnings/watches?
ReplyDeleteHello Phil my husband and I are up in Cape Canaveral he is working on Patricks Air Force base but our house is located in S. Florida when will we know for sure if we need to leave and put our shutters up??? We defiantly do not want to be out here with one bridge to 95 leaving, but we also need time to travel home to prepare our home.
ReplyDeleteNo single model is 100% accurate. Thats why there are so many of them. But lately GFDL has been pretty good.
ReplyDeleteBeaulieus: Watches will be issued 48 hrs before a storm is to hit. I wouldn't be surprised if some start going up sometime Tuesday evening. Hope this helps.
ReplyDeleteHi Phil, I live in Broward, with the storm being a major hurricane and as large as it is, even with it coasting offshore, would we still be experiencing at the least a very strong tropical storm here?
ReplyDeleteHow come Miami-Dade is not under any kind of watches yet. I figured we would get a watch at the same time that the Northwest Bahamas did.
ReplyDeleteIt's funny how the model track yesterday that showed the storm going over Miami was "one of the most reliable ones" and look.....the storm moved even further east! That is why I don't rely too much on the forecasts until 48 hours before. No need to panic!
ReplyDeleteModels are like athletes.... during one season a particular model may be dead on, and the next year it strikes out. If models were perfect we would only need one, that's why we have dozens and dozens. Mother nature always has the last word.
ReplyDeleteThere a storm out there with a 50% chance of development what are models saying so far she the US be watching that too
ReplyDeleteHey Phil if it continues to wobble west can we feel more of the affects in miami dade? or can they shift the cone? im asking because i saw it was heading inbetween the islands but then it went west? what are your thoughts phil..
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ReplyDeleteDelvin, I will focus a little on that tonight. For the moment, with Irene so close, most of my energy and resources are devoted to it.
ReplyDeleteAnon: The more west it travels, the more effects we will have here. So far as of this update... it has begun to turn northwest.
ReplyDeleteplease Phil; let us know what is going to be tomorrow morning regards schools n weather please
ReplyDeletePhil says: As far as schools go, that is up to the school boards. Right now no closings expected. Our local impacts are in the blog.
ReplyDeleteWith gusts up to 30mph...how can schools allow students to wait amd drop off at stops??? No I am not a student... just see kids at the stops.
ReplyDeleteWill we remain out of the cone.
ReplyDeleteLooks pretty close to Miami,Phil.You know everyone is paying attention here all night.
ReplyDeleteHey Phil you were concern with the latest wobble to the west, why is that? is that wobble unexpected?
ReplyDeleteBeen watching the model runs on weather blogs..again can not understand why we are not AT THE VERY LEAST (not yelling just emphasis) under a TS watch. This is way too close for comfort. No entiendo.
ReplyDeleteI will be up most of the night following the system. Even though models and the official cone keeps us out of danger, I am worried. This is a huge and powerful storm and could take a wide turn. If it does, we may get more of Irene than we'd like. As far as the wobble... hurricanes never travel in a straight line so it may be nothing, or it could be something. Tonight will be pivotal.
ReplyDeleteMe, too. Very worried now with these winds and rain. It's lined up with latitude, watching that longitude
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