Higher Chances for Development

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is raising the chances for a tropical system to emerge in the Atlantic to 90%. Hurricane Hunters have been tasked to investigate the low on Monday.

Satellite Loop

This broad area of low pressure known as Invest 92L, was first noticed on Thursday July 23rd, and given a low 20% chance for growth. Since then the odds have skyrocketed and now it appears a depression or a tropical storm could develop early this upcoming week.

Stats:

• Location: 11.5 N, 36.9 W, or roughly 1,000 miles west/southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. 
• Winds: Under 25 mph
• Moving: West at 20 mph
• Pressure: 1010 mb or 29.82"

Where may it develop?

It could form anywhere in the red area over a period of 5 days. Where that happens will be key as to where it may end up. If it organizes around where the "X" is presently located, it could follow a similar path to now defunct Gonzalo. If it comes together a bit more north, then it could be more of a worry for the Leeward Islands.

As of this update it is recommended that the Lesser Antilles keep monitoring 92L. It could become a depression/storm within 48 to 72 hrs. If it reaches tropical storm status it will be named "Isaias"

Health Check

92 L is a broad area of low pressure. One can clearly see the circle of clouds in between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Lets look at what is surrounding it.

At the Surface:

92L is traveling over waters around 80 degrees. This is the minimum water temp for system to brew. As it moves west, temps gradually rise giving it the energy it needs to develop.

Mid Levels of the Atmosphere:

There is some dry air and Saharan Dust shown in the yellow, orange, and red colors, but 92L is sliding just beneath it. The dust will subside in a day or two and will not inhibit formation.

Upper Levels:

 

The Jet Stream, which is a river of air moving west to east, is far north and not an issue. Shear, or strong upper winds near 92L are non existent at the moment.

With nothing really to keep 92L from developing, it is highly reasonable to expected a system to develop in a few days.

Where is it Headed?

The "L" on the map over the Atlantic is where Invest 92 is located. It does not move on its own, other systems need to push it along. In this case, it's the Bermuda High, the big "H" north of 92L. The winds of the Bermuda High flow East to West, so we know 92L will move in the same fashion.

Models:

Forecasting where this system may end up will be determined by where it forms. At this moment most spaghetti runs or any other model is a pure intelligent guess. 

Early projections place a system near the Leeward Islands, then possibly, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, Eastern Cuba, then Bahamas, Florida, and the East Coast of the U.S.  This is a huge swath in response to not knowing where exactly the system will form.

What to do?

Depends on your location. The British Virgin Islands have already tweeted what they think will happen with 92L. They suggest it could be a hurricane by Thursday, impacting the Lesser Antilles, then Puerto Rico on Friday. This is NOT an official forecast cone from NHC, but a projection from their emergency office. Residents of the Lesser Antilles should be getting ready. Worry meter: Medium to Elevated.

Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, & Haiti: The same applies for you at this moment. Your worry meter is moderate. You need to review your plans and needs and keep an eye on 92 L over the next few days.

Jamaica & Eastern Cuba; Worry Meter is low. You have at least a week to observe the progress of 92L. 

Bahamas & So. Florida. Worst case scenario would place a system near the area in 7 - 10 days. Observe its progress and review your plans. Worry Meter is low.

I'll keep watching the progress of 92L and will keep you posted on what actions if any to take.