Tropical Depression 19

South Florida is under a Tropical Storm Watch and a Flood Watch

Twenty four hours ago, this disturbance over the Bahamas had a mere 40% chance for development and that was expected once it moved into the Gulf of Mexico. Yet at 5 pm Friday, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) began issuing advisories on tropical depression 19.

 

The depression will track over South Florida Friday night and move into the Gulf of Mexico. Once there,it could turn into tropical storm Sally and aim for the Gulf States.

 

The area shaded blue is under a tropical storm watch. This means that between tonight and Saturday, winds over 39 mph are POSSIBLE. Not a certainty, put the possibility is there with this depression.

 

Heavy rain is the biggest concern with TD 19. Up to 4 inches are possible in some areas and that could lead to street flooding. All of South Florida is under a Flood Watch.

We'll be watching.

96L Close to Home

Friday brings us a healthy disturbance over the Northwestern Bahamas. It is being watched by he National Hurricane Center (NHC) and is forecast to cause pockets of heavy rain across the region. It could become a depression as early as tonight

Satellite Loop

This is Invest96L. Invest for an area NHC is INVEST-igating, 96 is a tracking number, "L" stands for Atlantic Basin. It could become a depression near South Florida Friday Night.

• Location: Over Northwestern Bahamas 25.0 N 78.0 W 
• Winds: Gusts at times to 30 mph 
• Pressure: 1013 mb / 29.91 inches 
• Moving: West at 10 mph

The darker oranges, browns, and even black colors in this loop will show you where the highest cloud tops can be found, which correlate to heavy rain. 96L appears to have plenty of moisture which will be impacting the Bahamas Friday.  Some of the rain should start creeping into South Florida by late afternoon and stay over the area possibly throughout the weekend. Saturday could be a wet day with possible street flooding over areas saturated from recent rain.

NHC Watching 6 Areas

This is a great view of five out of the six systems NHC is following.

1. Small bit of clouds just west of Florida is a disturbance 
2. Big blob of clouds over the Bahamas is Invest96L 
3. Swirl in Mid Atlantic is Paulette 
4. Smaller spin SE of Paulette is Rene 
5. Big mass of clouds off Africa is Invest95L. 
6. Not seen from this angle is a new wave over Western Africa.

Chances for development of 96L:

Look at the orange"X" by the Bahamas. NHC says the disturbance has an 80% chance for organization. Surface observations suggest it could become a depression late Friday. If it doesn't, it should once it moves into orange area in gulf of Mexico. An area of low pressure could be forming already. 

Where is it headed?

Early model runs suggest a track that may take it as far East as Florida's Big Bend and as far west as Eastern Texas. This entire region should monitor it closely. 

Live Radar

Stay on top of the downpours with LIVE radar from NWS Miami.

Another Disturbance near Florida

On this satellite view, the disturbance is not the big blob of clouds over Texas, but the small strip just south of Mississippi & Alabama. Per the potential formation graphic earlier in this post, it has a 30% chance for development as it drifts SW into the yellow area away from Florida.

2 Tropical Storms

Paulette

Paulette should intensify into a hurricane this weekend and unfortunately aim for Bermuda before making a sharp turn back out to sea. This turn will be due to the jet stream and a high pressure dome coming out of the U.S. We hope this duo speeds up to offer Bermuda some protection.

Rene

Rene will get lost in the steering winds the next few days. It is battling shear and moving over the same territory Paulette traversed. This water is spent of its fuel, not as warm, and thus provides no energy to Rene. 

Where to Next?

If it survives the weekend, it will eventually start moving north again being dragged by the same jet that pushed Paulette Away.

Invest 95L

If you refer to the potential formation graphic at the start of the blog, you will see a big red swath in the Eastern Atlantic. This is where 95L is expected to develop. It has a high chance, 90%... that it will become the next named system 

• Location: A couple of hundred miles South of Cape Verde 11.0 N 25.0 W 
• Winds: Gusts at times to 30 mph 
• Pressure: 1011 mb / 29.85inches 
• Moving: West at 15 - 20 mph

Where is it headed?

When you see a model spread like this, it means they are having a tough time with 95L. Some runs take it towards the islands, while other move it quickly to the north Atlantic. Lets see what actually develops and where, so the models can get a better handle. This is so far away, there is plenty of time to watch.

Lastly, a wave over the West Coast of Africa.

It is just starting to emerge over the Eastern Atlantic. Once in the orange area by Cape Verde, as shown in the potential graphic, it will get a 40% chance for growth.

Lots to watch, and we'll be watching.

Peak of Season, Lots to Watch, & La Niña

September 10th is the peak of hurricane season. This is the time of year when we tend to see the most activity in the tropics, and as we look out into the Atlantic Basin we can see why.

Thursday morning the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued its Tropical Outlook, or areas they are monitoring, and the tally is 7.

Lets look at them one by one:

• Yellow X by the Carolinas- Is a disturbance with some shower activity that is expected to fall apart soon. Good news here. 
• Yellow X East of the Bahamas- is an area of clouds and rain that will move over the Bahamas & So. Florida over the next 24 hours, with the possibility to deliver more rain. Once it moves into the Gulf it will have a chance to develop as it moves away from us. 
• Yellow X in Gulf of Mexico is new as of Thursday morning,  Small disturbance moving SW. It has a low chance for development over the next 5 days.  
• In the middle of the Atlantic we find two Tropical Storms, Paulette and Rene. No worries from Rene but Paulette could impact Bermuda by Tuesday before it turns north away from the U.S. 
• Red X by West Coast of Africa is a tropical wave  just moving into the Atlantic Ocean, It has a 90% chance of developing into a depression or a storm in the area highlighted in red. Needs to be watched by the islands. 
• Orange area over the Cape Verde Islands-is where NHC thinks another wave in Central Africa may develop once it moves offshore.

Latest on Paulette

In the short term, Paulette is expected to intensify and possibly impact Bermuda by Tuesday as a category 1 with 85 mph winds.

In the long term, models show the jet stream pushing along a front with a huge dome of high pressure that will deflect it from the U.S. Keeping fingers crossed all these features will pick up speed and help Bermuda.

The rest of the Tropics

Not too worried about all the yellow and orange areas, however, the red X, needs to be watched.  Very Early model runs suggest a developing system near the Islands in the days ahead.

Euro Model:

By September 18th, it shows a small dot south of Haiti/Dominican Republic. This is signaling the start of a depression or a storm.

Canadian Model:

On the same date, this model shows a much stronger swirl around the same geographical area. Anything developing this strong in this region needs to be monitored by everyone.

GFS Model

Also on the 18th, this projection shows a strong system developing but closer to Puerto Rico. 

The bottom line is everyone should monitor the progress of that red X emerging from Africa on this Thursday.

La Niña Outlook

We all know El Niño, a warming of the equatorial waters of the Pacific Ocean. It can cause worldwide storms, droughts and other severe weather events, but it keeps hurricane formation somewhat in check. La Niña, is its sister, a cooling of the Pacific Waters. Unfortunately it does nothing to curtail storm formation in the Atlantic Basin. The newest outlook calls for La Niña to remain through winter. We remain vigilant to whatever may form down the road.

We'll be watching

Paulette Soon?

Labor Day Monday begins with a Traffic Jam in the Tropics and two depressions to watch. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is now issuing advisories on Tropical Depression 17 which formed Sunday night at 11 pm and Tropical Depression 18 which organized Monday at 5 am Monday.

Presently there are 4 areas in the tropics being monitored by NHC. 

• One yellow area with a very low chance for organization 
• Orange area with a medium chance for growth
• New TD 17. 
• New TD 18.

If TD 17 or 18, were to turn into a tropical storm, it would be called Paulette. This would set a record for the earliest "P" named system. The present record holder is "Philippe" from September 17th, 2005.    

We are almost at the peak of hurricane season and have already see storms A-O.  We may run out names this season and may have to resort to the Greek Alphabet to track additional systems. The last time this happened was the record setting year of 2005.

Satellite Loop

You can see the double spins in the Satellite Loop. Both will be moving to the west/northwest. 

Where is TD 17heading?

NHC says there could be some issues in the track due to possible interaction with TD 18 by the Cape Verde Islands. This may prevent TD 17 from traveling too far north.

TD 17 is also forecast to remain as a Tropical Storm. NHC suggests dry air in its path will be responsible for keeping it in check over the next four days, possibly topping off at 65 mph winds in 72 hours.  But by day 5, they say strong southerly upper winds known as shear is forecast to weaken the system further.

New TD 18

Where is it Going?

The system will look for a weakness in the Bermuda High, and start turning northward by day 5 in its trajectory. It may reach hurricane status in a few days.

We'll be watching