Atlantic Sat Image

Atlantic Sat Image
Clouds over Atlantic

Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Low in Gulf may stay low

Since the weekend we've been following an area of clouds and rain int the SW Gulf of Mexico. As of early Tuesday morning , NHC is giving it a 50% chance for development during the next 5 days. Down from a high of 60% on Monday.



If it does develop it may do so along the area highlighted in orange. The other area in yellow has a minimal chance for development.

So if it develops, where is it going?
The models are all over the place. The jet stream is pushing a front South from Canada, and its coming down like a train. It should keep the system either in the SW Gulf or posh it into the Caribbean. It may also continue to weaken it. Only a couple of models re-curve the storm back towards Florida by next week.



The front that will keep this system in the Gulf/Caribbean should stall over us and keep us soggy maybe through the end of the week.


Monday, October 20, 2014

Gulf Area of Concern

As we near the end of hurricane season, systems tend to develop over the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico more often than the Atlantic. Of course Mother Nature is trying to brew something in the Gulf of Mexico. There is an area of disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche with plenty of cloud cover and thunderstorm activity.

This is what the National Hurricane Center is saying about this feature:

1. An area of low pressure located over the extreme southwestern
Bay of Campeche continues to produce showers and thunderstorms.

This system has some potential to become a tropical cyclone during he next two to three days while it moves slowly eastward to east-northeastward, before it interacts and possibly merges with a frontal system towards the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.


This is what the very early model runs are suggesting:



The models are not so sure as to where the system may end up. Some take it west , others east.  NHC place the highest chances in our direction.


The local NWS office suggest we all keep our eyes on it.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
LATER IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF...WITH THE NET EFFECT BEING DEEP
MOISTURE CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND SUGGESTS THAT GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SO ALL INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.