There's a bottleneck in the Tropics and two areas need for us to be paying attention.
Look at all the activity across the Atlantic Basin.
From left to right:
- An upper low and a wave across South Florida
- Disturbance East of the Carolinas
- Tropical Storm Florence. This could be a major headache next week along the Eastern Seaboard
- Tropical Depression #9. May be a worry for the Lesser Antilles down the road
- Tropical Storm Helene. This grew out of Potential Storm #8 off the West Coast of Africa
Lets begin with the wave/upper low
The upper low is sitting over Florida dragging plenty of moisture from the Caribbean. We had scattered downpours Friday morning and a few more could linger overnight along the coast.There are NO worries of this turning tropical.
What's next?
The upper low/wave will track into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The winds out of the South will draw in heat and humidity, so expect a hot muggy day with anytime downpours. A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out.
Depression 9: A concern for the Islands
This depression is sitting a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. It will continue intensifying despite having Saharan Dust and dry air to the north. It will skirt just underneath all that on a steady westerly course.
Where is it headed?
NEW AS OF 11pm FRIDAY NIGHT: It may be a category 2 by Wednesday.
This is the cone of concern from NHC. There's plenty to look at so just focus on the red area. The cone suggests the system will get pushed west by high pressure to it's north. It will start to move over warmer waters allowing it a chance to first become a tropical storm and then a hurricane. The cone indicates that by Wednesday, it could be a Category 2 just east of the islands.
This is the cone of concern from NHC. There's plenty to look at so just focus on the red area. The cone suggests the system will get pushed west by high pressure to it's north. It will start to move over warmer waters allowing it a chance to first become a tropical storm and then a hurricane. The cone indicates that by Wednesday, it could be a Category 2 just east of the islands.
Now focus on the spaghetti models. They are very consistent that at least through Monday it will remain on a westerly trajectory, but after that, about half the models turn it north. The other half keep it moving west. It is highly recommended for all across the Lesser Antilles to prepare accordingly. I'll keep my fingers crossed for a northerly jog, but in case it doesn't, you need to be ready.
Next concern is "Florence"
Tropical Storm Florence remains rather weak at the moment due to Shear, or strong winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere. But in a day or so that Shear relaxes and allows the system to grow in strength. Along with plenty of warm water in it's path, Florence is capable of reaching category 4 status by next Wednesday. That's 130+ mph winds with stronger gusts.
Florence appears to be aiming directly for the Mid Atlantic States. If high pressure coming out of Canada, does not arrive in time to protect the Eastern Seaboard, the entire area highlighted in orange may get impacted by the system. Need to review your supplies and get your hurricane plan ready.
Two Scenarios with Florence
Scenario 1: The Canadian high arrives in time to keep Florence offshore.
This would be the best outcome leading only to choppy seas and possibly some squally weather.
Bermuda may see more rain from this forecast.
Scenario 2:
Has the Canadian high arriving late and thus leaving the U.S. Coast susceptible to a strike by Florence.
If it does not turn and impacts the area with category 4 winds, the damage could be extensive along with the threat of lives lost.
Please if ordered to evacuate, heed the warnings.
Pack up and go.
Tropical Depression 8
This system may become a tropical storm also on Saturday providing a glancing blow to the Southernmost Cape Verde Islands. Watches and warnings are in place there. The good news... this system should stay in the open waters of the Atlantic and be a worry only for the shipping lanes.
Not done yet
NHC is also watching an area of disturbed weather near Bermuda. It has a 20% chance for development in the area highlighted in yellow over 5 days. It will move very little. Could it have an impact on Florence? The thinking right now is that it may fall apart before Florence reaches that area, and if it survives until then, it would be absorbed by Florence.
All this activity is a reminder we are almost at the peak of hurricane season
Like clockwork, the most active part of the season is September 10th, and that is fast approaching. The first half of the season was slow, but it has picked up quickly in recent weeks. Hoping no more systems will develop.
We'll be monitoring
No comments:
Post a Comment