Could we soon see "Helene" and "Isaac?

As Florence stays on a steady course in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, two other systems could join it soon.

As of early Thursday evening, the National Hurricane Center (NHC), is following three areas in the tropics.

 

• UPDATED AT 11PM Thursday. Hurricane "Florence", has weakened to a Tropical Storm  with 70 mph winds. Down from a category 4 with 130 mph, a mere 24 hours ago. But expected to grow strong again Friday.
• There is also an area of low pressure roughly 500 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands, getting organized but lacking sufficient rainfall. Still, it has a high chance for development.
• A vigorous tropical wave coming off the west coast of Africa, has plenty of thunderstorms and is also on the cusp of becoming a named system.

Let's begin with "Florence"

It will get steered in the direction of Bermuda by high pressure in the Mid Atlantic. Once past the island, another high is forecast to move across the Northeast and possibly slow down the turn north. If this happens, "Florence" may go mighty close to the Eastern Seaboard. From the Carolinas northward, everyone should be paying attention.

 

Strong upper level winds known as shear are currently taking its toll on the system. It was a mighty category 4 Wednesday afternoon, but as of this writing it's down to a category 1. It appears "Florence" may have the last laugh as the shear is expected to weaken in 24 hours and allow the hurricane to re-intensify.  The graphic shows the shear in the green and orange colors. Over the next 24-48 hours, there will be no shear right where "Florence" will be traveling. Models have it possibly back to a category three as it nears Bermuda.

"Helene" and "Isaac" in the makings

 In the Far Eastern Atlantic there are two other areas NHC is monitoring for development. The first is a low west of the Cape Verde Islands. It's getting better organized and just needs a little more activity in the way of thunderstorms for it to be christened "Helene".

Just behind that, another spin is coming out of Africa, with plenty of storm activity already. This may be named "Isaac", or vice versa, (if the first one holds back) . Both systems have a 90% chance for development anywhere in the areas highlighted red.

Where could, would-be "Helene" go?

Until something organizes and we have a good fix on the center, models are just giving us an educated guess. The very early runs are fanned out which means they don't have a good handle on it. Some take it almost due north, while a small cluster keeps it moving due west. If this pans out, the system COULD be near the Lesser Antilles by Thursday Sep 13th.

 What about possible "Isaac"?

We have even less model runs available and they keep whatever develops, close to the Cape Verde Islands thru Tuesday Sep 11th.

We are indeed in Cape Verde Season, and if we look ahead, we may get to see 4 systems in the tropics. The European Model suggests that by next Tuesday, "Florence" could be close to Bermuda, "Helene", east of the Lesser Antilles, "Isaac' turning north in the Atlantic, and a possibly fourth system over Cape Verde. Keep in mind this is just one model out of many, but just a reminder we are nearing the peak of hurricane activity on September 10th.

Anything locally?

We have the potential for some rain, but nothing tropical. A wet duo is expected to push in moisture across South Florida over the next 48 hours.  There is an upper level low pressure system over the Bahamas, and at the same time a wave across the same area. With all this instability we can expect a good chance for anytime downpours from Friday through Saturday.

We'll be monitoring.