Tuesday, July 1, 2014

Tropical Depression #1

As of Tuesday morning the depression remains poorly organized and nearly stationary almost 100 miles East of Cape Canaveral. NHC declared the low to be a Depression, the first of the 2014 season, late Monday night.

Satellite imagery shows the northern half of the low, to be void of cloud cover and rain while most of the downpours are offshore and over the Northwestern Bahamas. Grand Bahama Island, Andros, and Nassau, have been drenched over the last 48 hours, and it appears more rain is still possible.

Notice the blues and oranges in the color enhanced imagery, these are the areas of heavy rain sitting South of the Low.

This is the pattern we have seen since Monday and as of today, there is no change in structure or organization. This depression remains weak, mostly a rainmaker so far.

What's next? Here is what NHC is thinking:

Numerical guidance shows favorable conditions for intensification with weak shear and developing upper-level outflow over the cyclone during the next 72 hours or so.  

The official intensity forecast now shows the system becoming a hurricane, which is similar to the
latest intensity model consensus.

Models suggest that the upper air environment will become favorable for this depression to become Tropical Storm "Arthur" and may even reach Hurricane status in the long run.  Strong upper winds should drag it away from us and push it towards the Middle Atlantic States. It may be close to the North Carolina, Virginia border by the fourth of July. This could be a big holiday mess for them.

For the time being NHC has the following advisory in place:

What can we expect: 
It will remain mostly cloudy with a chance for downpours for South Florida and NW Bahamas through Wednesday. After that, as the depression begins to move North, our conditions will improve and we should return to our typical Summer Time pattern of morning sun and afternoon storms, by Friday.

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