Thursday, July 3, 2014

"Arthur" - Season's 1st Hurricane

"Arthur" intensified overnight into a Category 1 system with 75 mph winds, and as of mid-morning the winds had picked up to 80 mph. The satellite imagery shows a more concentric, more symmetrical hurricane this morning as it aims for the Carolina's at around 9 mph.

The feeder bands continue to supply it a steady stream of warm, moist tropical air, and this should keep it healthy over the next 24 hours.

For the moment it is still encountering a bit of "dry air hangover" from yesterday so it may not be able to take full advantage of the very warm waters it is traveling over.

On Friday upper level conditions become a bit more hostile for "Arthur" and it will begin to lose some strength.

By the weekend it should be over the Canadian Maritimes nearing its end.

The rain is already coming ashore.

Forecast totals suggest anywhere between 1-4" along the path with some isolated areas receiving as much as 6 inches.

That will lead to flooding and cause some rivers to swell.

Massachusetts and parts of the Northeast could see some rain by the weekend.

In the long run, it appears that outside of the Barrier Islands, most of the heavy high rain totals should stay offshore throughout "Arthur's" duration.


Most of the Eastern Seaboard will feel some of "Arthur's" winds as noted by the yellows and greens on the wind forecast graphic, but the brunt of the storm will be felt by the outer banks of North Carolina.

For South Florida, there may be enough moisture left behind by "Arthur", that coupled with our daily sea breeze interaction, could fire up a storm or two.

We should see typical rain chances this weekend.

Mother Nature should keep its fireworks well to our north.

By the middle of next week we may see a tropical wave over us pumping more moisture.

Until then….

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