Monday, June 30, 2014

Possible Heavy rain from offshore Low

An area of low pressure that we've been monitoring since last week remains ready to become the season's first depression, but as of this writing it has not. You can clearly see a surface counter clockwise spin, yet strong upper winds are pushing most of the rain directly south.

The color enhanced blotches in reds, golds, and oranges represent the heaviest rain. As long as this low remains to our east, South Florida and the NW Bahamas will have to deal with some tropical downpours.

Latest from NHC:

  • Shower and thunderstorm activity remains minimal in association with a low pressure area located about 140 miles east-northeast of Melbourne, Florida.  However, surface pressures are falling, and environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development during the next few days.  
  • A tropical depression is likely to form by mid-week while the system moves slowly southwestward and then turns northward and northeastward near the southeastern United States coast.  
  • An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this afternoon, if necessary.
  • Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
  • Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

What are the models suggesting?

They have remained pretty much in agreement that by midweek, just when NHC thinks it may become a depression, the low will get pushed north aiming for the Barrier Islands, and then turning more northeast.

Until that happens we will have to deal with the potential for heavy rain.

Local NWS office:

Since the potential for heavy rain is there for South Florida and NW Bahamas, they expect the possibility of street flooding. The timing is from early afternoon through Tuesday.  They suggest Palm Beach County could be the wettest over that time frame for South Florida.

On the rainfall forecast graphic, you can see possible rainfall totals between half an inch to over an inch for South Florida with Grand Bahama Island forecast at around two inches over the next 24 hours.

We'll keep you posted if anything changes.

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