Monday, July 21, 2014

UPDATE: Invest 92

As we get underway with this new work week there is a small feature to watch in the Eastern Atlantic. This area of clouds and rain can be found over 1200 miles WSW of the Cape Verde Islands. It is moving west at a steady clip of 15-20 mph.

NHC has deemed this feature INVEST 92, as it is an area they would like INVESTigate further.
Over the next few days this feature will continue to move west with the possibility of some gradual organization. After that, most models indicate it will enter an area more hostile for growth.

Update: NHC is upping the chances for development to 70% through 120 hours. 
Shower activity associated with a small area of low pressure located
about 1250 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has continued to
increase and show signs of organization during the past few hours.
Satellite data indicate that the circulation has become better
defined and the system is producing a small area of winds near
tropical storm force. Only a small increase in organization of the
shower activity would result in the formation of a tropical
depression as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15
to 20 mph during the next day or two.  After that time, however,
environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for
development or strengthening. Interests in the Lesser Antilles
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

 It may become a depression or a storm in that time frame.

Many of you have asked about the spaghetti models placing us in its path down the road, are we to worry? First, most models do not handle these small features well. They need something organized in order to get a good fix so they can issue a forecast. Second, some models are good for short term forecast, others long range, some are specialized to look at a certain level of the atmosphere, while others look at the system's entire environment. All need a good fix and an organized feature..

If  it does become a depression or a storm over the next few days then the long range models will have a better handle on it.

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