Tuesday, July 29, 2014

"Bertha" in the makings?

As of 8 am Tuesday, the area of clouds and rain East of the Lesser Antilles, is looking better and better. It may become a depression or even Tropical Storm "Bertha" over the next 48 hours.

On the color enhanced satellite imagery one can see a definitive spin. NHC now says an area of low pressure is present within this cluster of clouds roughly 1600 miles East of the Windward Islands.

The low is moving west at around 10 to 15 mph.

The darker colors represent where the strongest
t-storms are present.

This will fluctuate throughout the day as the low deals with some drier air to its North.

NHC is giving this feature anywhere between a 70 to an 80% chance for development over the next few days.

The detailed Visible Satellite picture has a clear view of cloud banding starting to take shape.

It can be found at Lat: 9.9 N and Lon: 37.3 W with estimated winds between 29 and 34 mph, just below the 35 mph threshold to be classified as a depression.

The government of Venezuela has issued a precautionary alert for the Lesser Antilles.

Regardless of strengthening, this low has the potential for squally weather across the islands.

So where is it headed?

Right now most early model runs aim whatever develops towards the Leeward Islands, being pushed along by the Bermuda High.

An out-of-season cold front sitting across the Southeastern US could play a big role in protecting Florida and the Bahamas from this feature. If the front moves South just enough and does not weaken, it could act as a shield pushing the system East into the Atlantic waters.

Still too early to tell. Very few models handle disturbances accurately, they need to have a good fix and an organized feature to be able to issue accurate tracks. As of this update, this feature is just an area of low pressure.


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