Wednesday, July 30, 2014

The waiting game

NHC continues to watch an area of low pressure in the Mid Atlantic Ocean over 2,500 miles away from South Florida. They are giving it a 50% chance for development over the next 5 days, down from a high of 80% a couple of days ago.

While it's physical appearance is good, the inner workings are still not firing on all cylinders. Dry air to the north is robbing much needed moisture required for growth, while at the same time, sea surface temps are not hot enough to overcome that lack of moisture.

The color enhanced satellite imagery shows good spin, but most of the dark colors, which indicate t-storm activity, can only be found in the southern half.

More rain is needed around the center for it to become a healthy system.

Surface winds however, are near depression strength of 35 mph, so there is a chance it could still be called a depression later today.

Because it is aiming for the Lesser Antilles, roughly 1100 miles away, everyone there should keep an eye out just in case this low gets its act together.

The models are almost unanimous that it will track towards the islands and then come close to Puerto Rico over the weekend.

After that the tracks start to fan out, with some models keeping it over the NW Bahamas and others turning it away from the US.

At this stage of the game the models do not have a good handle on possible tracks. Since there is really no well defined center, or a good starting point, the end results provided by the models tend to be sketchy.

All we can do is wait and see what and if something develops.

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