Thursday, September 1, 2011

Just Sitting There

An area of disturbed weather sits in the Gulf of Mexico about 100 miles South of Louisiana. It is soaking up plenty of heat energy and trying to get organized.  NHC is giving it a 70% chance it could become a depression over the next 2 days. A recon plane will check it out today.

Satellite  imagery shows there is plenty of thunderstorm activity within this disturbance as it slowly drifts northwest. Everyone in the Gulf should monitor it closely.

Some of the rain associated with it could expand into South Florida today giving us another soggy afternoon.

Models this morning still do not have a handle on where it may go. When you see tracks fan out like they are doing in the latest run, it means confidence is very low for the long range. Conventional wisdom suggests it should become a depression soon and even possibly a Tropical Storm (it would be Lee), and drift toward Louisiana dumping plenty of rain there.  Nothing to do but sit and wait.

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