Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Lee in the Gulf

The next system after Katia will be Lee. There is an elongated area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico with a real good chance it could become a depression over the next few days.

If it grows stronger and becomes a Tropical Storm, it will be named "Lee".  This area of clouds and rain in the Gulf has a 60% chance of developing over the next 48 hours. 

The big question with a tropical system so close to us, is... "where is it headed?".  The answer is up in the air... really.

We need to watch for some strong upper level winds moving into the region. They will dictate where this system will ultimately end up, the problem is, the models can't agree as to where and when the upper winds will appear.

As you look closely at the latest model runs, many take it North into Louisiana, others into Texas, and even some over the Panhandle.                         When models are this widespread, they really don't have a good handle on what is happening right now. We may need to wait another 12 hours for them to figure out what's going on and to deliver a more concise outlook.

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