Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Next Depression?

We are keeping an eye on a broad area of low pressure over 2,800 miles away from South Florida.  There is plenty of time to watch it and see what develops and where it may go.

From the satellite imagery one can see thunderstorm activity surrounding the area of low pressure.

It appears to be getting organized as it moves west toward the Lesser Antilles.

An upper low to its north has weakened and is no longer providing shear however, it still has to contend with a pocket of dry air ahead of it.

If it can overcome this obstacle it may become a depression over the next 48 hours.

If it stays on its westward track, it could be near the Lesser Antilles in about 5 days. As of this moment it's about 1500 miles east of the Windward Islands.

If it does develop, most models track it west for about 24-36 hours but then they fan out for the rest of the run. Some take it to Venezuela, others push it across the islands and into the Caribbean, while others keep it in the Atlantic. For now all we can do is watch and wait. By the way if it grows into a Tropical Storm it will be called, Phillipe. (Sorry, jumped the gun... it will be named Ophelia)

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