Thursday, September 8, 2011

Maria a worry? Only if it survives.

The Forecast Cone for Tropical Storm Maria shifted west on Thurday and in the long run it could come close to South Florida....that's if it survives.

Here is the latest:

  • Maria is looking awful on satellite with most of the storms far removed to the northeast of the center of circulation.
  • Right now conditions are a bit hostile in the upper levels of the atmosphere but they will become more favorable in the days ahead.
  • Even if it falls apart into a wave, it may still come back to life.

The models are in fair agreement that whatever remains of Maria over the next few days, should impact the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Advisories have been issued for parts of the Leeward Islands.

The biggest threat from this system will be in the form of rain, it could produce flash floods, land and mudslides.

Where is it headed?

  • Maria is on the south side of the Bermuda high
  • It should move west for the next three days
  • By the fourth day, IF IT SURVIVES. the Bermuda high moves east and allows whatever is left of Maria to turn north. The question is... Will it miss land? We'll have to wait first to see if it survives and then if  it will be strong enough to be a worry.

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