Thursday, September 1, 2011

Katia: East Coast Worry?

Katia is on the comeback trail after weakening on Thursday. A huge burst of thunderstorm activity is trying to surround the center once again. It could regain hurricane status by late today. The downturn came at the hands of moderate shear to its northwest quadrant due to an upper low nearby.

What to look for on Friday.
  • Will outflow be visible again
  • Will thunderstorm activity continue to rise
  • Will the shear due to the upper low begin to weaken even more
If all of the above things happen, then Katia should be able to rebound.

In the long run, the forecast cone continues to jog west on the 5th day. The question is, will it turn out to be a threat to the East Coast. From the latest model run below, it appears Katia will stay away, threatening Bermuda.

This is the latest forecast cone. Looks a tad worrisome for the Middle Atlantic states.

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