Wednesday, September 7, 2011

Busy NHC

Plenty of activity in the Tropics. This Thursday, NHC is following Hurricane Katia, Tropical Storm Maria, and Tropical Storm Nate. I will cover Katia, and Nate here, I have given Maria a separate blog update all its own since it could be a headache down the road.

You can see the three systems on the graphic to the left.

We have "Nate in the Gulf", "Katia" in the middle of the Atlantic, and "Maria" in the far Eastern Atlantic.

Katia is being impacted by shear and thus is looking a little disheveled. The western side is exposed to the elements with dry air filtering in.

The eyewall replacement cycle I mentioned on Tuesday halted for some reason and has kept her intensity in check.

It seems Katia may not get a chance to get its act together again. It has about 48 hours worth of warm water fuel, after that, it's the hurricane graveyard (Northern Atlantic) for her.

Katia will not go down quietly however, while she may lose her tropical characteristics in the days ahead, she will remain a powerful force throughout the higher latitudes posing a huge threat to marine interests.

Katia should thread the needle as far as her track is concerned.

Most models move her in between Bermuda and the East Coast as she heads to the Northern Atlantic. About the only effects to be felt will be in the form of choppy seas and dangerous rip-currents.

We now turn our attention to the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico. We now have Tropical Storm Nate. It remains stationary in the Southeastern Gulf soaking up heat energy. It may become a hurricane over the next 24 hours.

It will eventually move north, then west and possibly impact Central Mexico in about 5 days.

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