Tropical Storm Ophelia is a tad stronger this Wednesday with plenty of moisture on the Eastern Half, but the Western side remains mostly dry. This should keep it in check and prevent further intensification.
This is what NHC says about Ophelia's future:
THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN AHEAD OF OPHELIA DOES NOT FAVOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY OVER THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND INCREASE IN A FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORMS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO AND CALLS FOR ONLY A LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. THE NHC FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
NHC's assessment is on track with the wind shear forecast map above. If you look at Friday's panel you will notice a yellow blob appearing east of the Lesser Antilles. This shear will make life miserable for Ophelia and should weaken it considerably.
But what about its track? Only a few models take Ophelia into the Caribbean, while most curve it Northwestward into the Western Atlantic. This appears to be the favored route of systems this hurricane season.
This is the official forecast cone from NHC. The islands should keep their eyes on Ophelia as it may dump heavy rain.