Tropical Development in the Gulf?

Something interesting may happen over the next few days that may lead to tropical organization in the Gulf of Mexico.

 

Instead of looking out into the Gulf for an area of disturbed weather or even across into the Caribbean, we will be looking over the Heartland. Yes, a front coming out of the Midwest may spin up an area of low pressure and then push it into the northeastern Gulf.

It's worth noting because if it does dip into the Gulf, it will travel into one of three areas that tend to spawn storms during the month of July. Historically if anything were to develop this time of year, it would do so in the areas highlighted blue. The arrows indicate the favored routes.

Model Data

European

This model places a possible low just south of the Panhandle by the middle of next week. Even if nothing develops, the wind flow will be out of the southwest and will push along lots of moisture. This could lead to a wet scenario for much of the state.

GFS

This is an almost identical model, with the sole exception of not looking so wet for South Florida.

Fuel to Grow

If indeed the Low does drop into the Gulf, there will be plenty of fuel for it to grow. Tropical systems need at least 80 degrees of water temperature to develop, and as of the latest observation from buoy data, temps are in the upper 80s.  Plenty to monitor in the days ahead. We'll be watching.