National Hurricane Center Watching Gulf

An uncommon path may lead to tropical development in the Gulf over the next 5 days. It doesn't happen that often but it's not rare. Sometimes we get lows moving off the Eastern Seaboard that turn into storms. This one may actually spin up across Kentucky / Tennessee.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC), says a front moving across the Southeast could spin up an area of low pressure. It should then drop into the Gulf, where very warm waters there could give it the energy it needs to grow.

Once in the northeastern Gulf, NHC is giving it a 20% chance that it could develop into a depression or tropical storm. We will be following this carefully. It was just last year that powerful hurricane Michael struck the Panhandle.

 Forecast

For Sunday and Monday, the general wind flow will be out of the south, then southwest. This will drag in moisture from the Caribbean. You can expect anytime downpours, higher chances on Monday.

Low develops

The forecast suggests a low will develop over the southeast from a stalling front.  The front will slowly sag south and start falling apart.The low will sink into the Gulf maybe by Wednesday.

Where will it go?

High pressure sitting to our East will build and move west (the western edge of the high represented by the blue arrows). This is like a big bully pushing the fledgling low west. Eventually another front dives south creating a nice path for the low to take. It could just head northeast across the southeastern US and moving offshore by the Mid Atlantic.

Nothing has developed yet, and at this point models are giving us educated guesses. All we can do is wait and see if anything organizes in the days ahead. We'll keep you posed.