Recon Mission Scheduled

The National Hurricane Center has tentatively set a recon mission into the possible system developing over the Gulf of Mexico for Wednesday.

NHC is still watching a broad area of low pressure over Georgia for possible organization and they're giving it an 80% chance that it could become at least a depression.

 Plenty of Fuel

Tropical systems need at least 80° of water temperature to grow and there is plenty of heat in the area to help it get its act together.

Spaghetti Models

They are coming more into agreement that whatever develops will hug the coast for a few days. Even if its a weak system, it could dump plenty of rain across the region.

Forecast Totals

These are just some preliminary amounts expected.Texas and Louisiana could see up to 7inches.  I'm sure these numbers will go higher once the low moves into the Gulf.

Strength?

This graph shows how strong the system may be. As of late Monday night, more models show the possibility of more than just a depression but a tropical storm. If it is a storm it will be called "Barry".

Where will it end up?

These are very preliminary model runs, since nothing has organized yet, there is no good starting point and without that we don't get a good ending point.  The European model suggests the system becomes a depression by Friday and then moves west, pushing onshore by Saturday night across the Texas-Louisiana border.

The GFS or American Model, places the system around the same area and same time, just not as strong.

Obviously no direct impact for South Florida, just a chance for tropical rains possibly through the end of the week. We'll be watching