Higher Chances for Gulf Development

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has raised the chances for a low to develop in the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico.

At the moment, we are keeping our eyes across the Southeast, where atmospheric conditions are conducive for an area of low pressure to form.

The low could form anywhere between Tennessee and the Florida Panhandle over the next few days.  This is not where we normally look for storm formation, but this low may spin up in such a way that it may ultimately slip into the warm waters of the Gulf.

Latest Chances from NHC

As of Sunday afternoon, an elongated area of low pressure was meandering southward. NHC expects a low to form once it gets in the Gulf (Maybe earlier). It could form anywhere in the area highlighted in orange over a 5 day period. They're giving it a 60% chance of actually developing, up from 20% late Saturday night.  Waters in the NE Gulf of Mexico are in the upper 80s. Tropical systems need at least 80 degrees of water temps to grow. There is plenty of fuel there for this one to take advantage.

What are the models suggesting.

Here are three of the ones I look at:

The European model places a well defined low at the mouth of the Mississippi River with the Bermuda high stretching from the Mid Atlantic all the way to Florida.

The GFS, shows a broad area of low pressure south of Florida's Panhandle. Florida would still be under the influence of the Bermuda high but showing up a bit weaker.

The GEM model has the low developing near Florida's Big Bend, with the Bermuda high at its weakest over Florida. Model runs courtesy : Tropical Tidbits

Bottom line: It appears that something is set to develop across the Northeast Gulf that could stick around the area through Friday.

Where will it go?

Since nothing has developed yet, models do not have a starting point so an ending point is just an educated guess. As of this writing, this is the thinking.


High pressure moves west taking the low with it. Eventually another front comes out of the Nation's mid section approaching the Southeast. Notice the gap between the blue arrows (western extent of the high) and the front. This is a road developing in the atmosphere that the low would end up taking.

Again CAUTION, nothing has developed yet. Once it does we will have a better understanding of its structure, surroundings, and possible future path. Keep monitoring for the latest. Everyone from Louisiana to Florida's Panhandle should be cautious. If we are lucky and nothing develops, expect heavy rain across the Panhandle through Central Florida, and even South Florida could get downpours from the Tropical Moisture.

We'll be watching.