NHC Monitoring a Low Close to Home

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is keeping their eyes on a weak area of low pressure over the Central Bahamas. 

On satellite you can see the blob of clouds and rain to the East of Florida. This is the feature NHC is watching. It is a weak area of low pressure with some thunderstorm activity. It's next to the Central Bahamas traveling WNW at around 15 mph.  It has been designated INVEST 94 L. Invest for an area NHC would like to INVESTigate further, 94 is just a tracking number, and "L" stands for the Atlantic Basin.

As of 8pm Sunday afternoon, NHC is giving the Invest a 10% chance it could become a depression or a tropical storm over a 5 day period. If it is going to develop, it may do so in the area highlighted yellow.

Model Output

For the time being, both the GFS and EURO models don't develop anything big either over the Bahamas, Cuba or South Florida.

Looking at this image, anything in blue with an "L" on it, can be considered a strong area of low pressure with gusty winds and heavy rain.   By Tuesday, the GFS places a blue area over South Florida but there is no closed or well organized low. While it may not show a tropical system developing, it is still capable of heavy downpours that could lead to street flooding.

The Euro model, is even less bullish with the low on the same forecast day.  It keeps it as just an area of clouds and rain.

It could still deliver a wet 1 - 3 day stretch across South Florida.

These weak systems may be highly disorganized but can still drench an area for days.

If it develops, where is it going?

As of this writing there are only a handful of models trying to determine where it may end up. As always when something hasn't organized, there is no good starting point and without that, models can only guesstimate where it may end up. As of this early run, it appears if anything develops it may take a jog back out to sea over a 5 day period.


The bottom line is that this weak low is capable of heavy down pours this upcoming week that could lead to street flooding in areas. The rain could come in waves with gusty squally conditions. Even if it doesn't turn into something stronger, it can still be a nuisance.

We'll be watching.