Two waves, one may become a threat

The National Hurricane Center is keeping their eyes on two tropical waves. Each may have a different ending.

This is the view across the Atlantic Basin. One wave is sitting over the Southeastern Bahamas, with the other navigating the waters of the Eastern Atlantic. There is plenty of Saharan Dust over the ocean that typically keep these systems in check, yet the farthest away will evade most of it.

Closest Wave

The first wave is highly disorganized and has a very small window of opportunity to develop. If it does so, it will do it east of Central Florida. It has only a 10% chance for growth. Even if it doesn't get its act together, most models are suggesting a very soggy pattern in the days ahead.

Rainy Days

Typical rain chances for South Florida this time of year is between 30% - 40%. We can expect them to go up starting on Thursday and going even higher for the weekend.

Rain Totals

Rainfall amounts over the area through Monday range anywhere between 1" to over 2.5". This wave will probably end by raining itself out.

Could be Higher

NWS suggests some areas could see anywhere between 5" - 7" by the time we move into next week. This will surely lead to street flooding. On top of that, this weekend will see a new moon which will make for extra high, high tides. This will prevent the standing water from draining.

Second Wave

This wave is in the Eastern Atlantic making its way to the Lesser Antilles.NHC has deemed it Invest 96L and has a high chance of developing into a depression or a storm in the area highlighted in red.

Spaghetti Models

There are only a handful of models at this early stage of the game. High pressure will push it northwest. It is also going to evade much of the Saharan Dust, staying behind one plume and ahead of another.

Long Range Model

NOTE: Since nothing has developed as of this writing and there is no center of circulation, there is no good starting point for the models to use. Take this as an educated guess. Once something develops then we can get a real good idea of where it may end up.

The European Model suggests that after the system organizes near the Lesser Antilles it could move over Hispaniola & Puerto Rico. This interaction with land could weaken it. If it's still around by next week Thursday, high pressure will move east and a front dives out of the Nation's midsection and onto the coast. If this happens it should push the system back out over open water.  This wave may end up scaring a few places if it develops. All we can do is wait and see what develops.

We'll be watching.

Wet Wave by End of the Week

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is following two tropical waves that may develop in the days ahead. There's a vigorous wave in the Far Eastern Atlantic and a disorganized wave by Puerto Rico.

We begin with the closest to home:

This wave, while disorganized, has dropped a lot of rain across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. It still has the potential for further downpours as it travels northwest over the next 5 days.

Over a period of 24 hours starting Monday at 8 am, the eastern side of Puerto Rico accumulated between 8 - 10" of rain. This has caused plenty of problems with standing water in many areas.  San Juan set a daily rain record with 2.35".  A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic.  Haiti should monitor closely in case the heavy rain travels their way on Wednesday.

What next?

If it does not fall apart, the wave will travel north of the Northwestern Bahamas, dropping more rain there. Once it reaches the area highlighted in yellow, NHC gives it a 10% chance that it could grow into a depression or a storm.

Even if it doesn't develop, the wave will drag tropical moisture our way. It will be steered by high pressure to the East, and an upper low in the Gulf. The moisture will only be able to go north and then northeast.

Here's what South Florida can expect:

Waves can be very fickle, growing quickly or falling apart just as fast. Be ready in case this one packs a wet punch.

Another Wave

This wave is near the Cape Verde Islands. It will continue to move west over the next few days. Once it nears the Lesser Antilles, NHC gives it a 50% chance to organize in the area highlighted in orange. After that, it could make a trek towards the Greater Antilles. If its still around by early next week, South Florida will have to monitor it.

We'll be watching.

Wave here by the weekend?

An area of clouds and rain is being monitored by the National Hurricane Center for development (NHC). This tropical wave is by Puerto Rico and the Northern Leeward Islands, moving towards the west/northwest. It is expected to cause some heavy downpours throughout its path in the next 24 - 48 hours. The heavy rain could lead to flooding, land and mudslides specially over the high terrain of Dominican Republic and Haiti. That will be monitored.

Satellite View

As of Monday morning, it remains a disorganized wave with just scattered areas of shower activity.  NHC does not expect any organization of this wave over the next couple of days but caution that the environment surrounding it could become favorable for development by the time it nears South Florida and Northwestern Bahamas.

Development Chances

The mountains of Hispaniola should keep the wave in check as well as some strong upper level winds known as shear. This combo will not allow the wave to get its act together. By the time it leaves Eastern Cuba, it will have a better chance to grow.

On Alert in Dominican Republic

An alert notice has been issued in Dominican Republic for the possibility of heavy rain over the next few days due to the passage of the wave.

The government suggests possible heavy rain with plenty of lightning strikes and even gusty winds expected to arrive by Tuesday and remain through Wednesday.

Everyone there should monitor the progress of this tropical wave.

Shear is expected to keep the wave weak, but it will ease up in a few days giving the wave some breathing room. It will also be traveling over warm waters which could give it the fuel it needs to organize.

As of this writing, NHC is giving this wave a 20% chance it could be a depression or a storm once it nears South Florida/NW Bahamas, by the upcoming weekend.

Spaghetti Models

NHC is calling this wave Invest95L. Invest for an area they would like to INVESTigate further, 95 is a tracking number, and "L" stands for the Atlantic Basin. You have probably noticed overtime when there's a new Invest, the number goes higher. The next one will be Invest96L. Once NHC reaches 99, they reset to 90.

There are only a handful of early models trying to decipher where the wave will end up, but most lineup more or less with the yellow formation area depicted above. Remember, that area highlighted is NOT a cone, but where NHC thinks the wave may develop.

South Florida Impacts

Even if it stays a tropical wave once over us, it is capable of heavy rain.  It could also grow stronger so you should be ready for that possibility. Review your supplies and make sure you have what you need now in case Mother Nature wants to play rough.

We'll be monitoring

NHC Monitoring a Low Close to Home

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is keeping their eyes on a weak area of low pressure over the Central Bahamas. 

On satellite you can see the blob of clouds and rain to the East of Florida. This is the feature NHC is watching. It is a weak area of low pressure with some thunderstorm activity. It's next to the Central Bahamas traveling WNW at around 15 mph.  It has been designated INVEST 94 L. Invest for an area NHC would like to INVESTigate further, 94 is just a tracking number, and "L" stands for the Atlantic Basin.

As of 8pm Sunday afternoon, NHC is giving the Invest a 10% chance it could become a depression or a tropical storm over a 5 day period. If it is going to develop, it may do so in the area highlighted yellow.

Model Output

For the time being, both the GFS and EURO models don't develop anything big either over the Bahamas, Cuba or South Florida.

Looking at this image, anything in blue with an "L" on it, can be considered a strong area of low pressure with gusty winds and heavy rain.   By Tuesday, the GFS places a blue area over South Florida but there is no closed or well organized low. While it may not show a tropical system developing, it is still capable of heavy downpours that could lead to street flooding.

The Euro model, is even less bullish with the low on the same forecast day.  It keeps it as just an area of clouds and rain.

It could still deliver a wet 1 - 3 day stretch across South Florida.

These weak systems may be highly disorganized but can still drench an area for days.

If it develops, where is it going?

As of this writing there are only a handful of models trying to determine where it may end up. As always when something hasn't organized, there is no good starting point and without that, models can only guesstimate where it may end up. As of this early run, it appears if anything develops it may take a jog back out to sea over a 5 day period.


The bottom line is that this weak low is capable of heavy down pours this upcoming week that could lead to street flooding in areas. The rain could come in waves with gusty squally conditions. Even if it doesn't turn into something stronger, it can still be a nuisance.

We'll be watching.

Potential Storm 2 and a Train of Waves

As of Wednesday morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) began issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone #2. This is a big term for a storm in the makings. They do this so they can start providing warnings to areas that may not have that much time to prepare once it fully develops.

The center of this system remains about one hundred miles southeast of the Mouth of the Mississippi River. The winds are not that big an issue at the moment, but the rainfall is and will continue to be.

Where is it headed?

Over the next few days it will meander over the Gulf slowly getting stronger. It could become Tropical Storm Barry on Thursday. By the weekend it could reach hurricane status just before making landfall anywhere in the area highlighted red. Between New Orleans to the East and Houston to the West.  It will then continue its trek northward across the Mississippi River Valley.

Watches and Warnings

From New Orleans west to Grand Isle, there is a Tropical Storm Watch in effect. From Grand Isle west to Cameron Louisiana, a Hurricane Watch is already in place. These may get elevated to Warnings by Thursday afternoon.

Heavy Rain Expected

Models are calling for the potential of excessive rainfall for coastal Louisiana by Friday. But as the storm moves inland, the threat will go north as well over the weekend.

These are the forecast totals over 7 days for the region. Baton Rough and Morgan City could get up to 2 feet of rain. This will surely lead to dangerous flooding.

Storm Surge

Another danger will be the storm surge or the wall of water that comes on-shore as the system is moving in-land. The rise in water could be up to 5 feet, higher if it arrives during high tide.

A Train of Waves

In other tropical news, there are 5 waves in the Atlantic Basin. All of which are being impacted by Saharan Dust. This dust makes it almost impossible for them to grow as they are starved for moisture.  Some of this dust may arrive on Thursday across South Florida making for hazy skies. That could stay through the weekend.

We'll be watching

New Tropical System? Plus a crowded Atlantic Basin

Sometime on Wednesday we could get a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico. A recon mission remains slated for the afternoon. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) will get their data which in turn will help decide if indeed there's a storm in the Gulf.

As of Wednesday morning a broad area of low pressure is spinning roughly 100 miles SSW of Apalachicola, Florida in the NE Gulf of Mexico. If it develops, it could produce up to hurricane force winds and a storm surge across parts of Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas over the next few days. Major rainfall amounts can be expected from Florida's Panhandle thru Texas.

Chances for Development

NHC is giving this feature a 90% chance that it could develop into a depression or a storm over the highlighted area in as little as 48 hours. This will NOT impact South Florida.

If it develops, where is it headed?

Most models agree that whatever blossoms in the Gulf will drag its feet along the Gulf Coast as it moves west. This could be a major rain event for some areas.

How much rain?

While much of the Southeast will get rain, it appears that the bulls eye for heavy downpours will be Mississippi and Louisiana. New Orleans could get as much as 12 inches of rain or more through Sunday evening. This will surely lead to flooding problems.

 Active Tropics

Aside from the possible system in the Gulf, there are 5 tropical waves in the Atlantic Basin. Only a few have any rain as the Saharan Air Layer is keeping them mostly dry.

In the long run, some of that dust could reach South Florida, drying us out and making for hazy skies by the end of the week.

We'll keep watching

Recon Mission Scheduled

The National Hurricane Center has tentatively set a recon mission into the possible system developing over the Gulf of Mexico for Wednesday.

NHC is still watching a broad area of low pressure over Georgia for possible organization and they're giving it an 80% chance that it could become at least a depression.

 Plenty of Fuel

Tropical systems need at least 80° of water temperature to grow and there is plenty of heat in the area to help it get its act together.

Spaghetti Models

They are coming more into agreement that whatever develops will hug the coast for a few days. Even if its a weak system, it could dump plenty of rain across the region.

Forecast Totals

These are just some preliminary amounts expected.Texas and Louisiana could see up to 7inches.  I'm sure these numbers will go higher once the low moves into the Gulf.

Strength?

This graph shows how strong the system may be. As of late Monday night, more models show the possibility of more than just a depression but a tropical storm. If it is a storm it will be called "Barry".

Where will it end up?

These are very preliminary model runs, since nothing has organized yet, there is no good starting point and without that we don't get a good ending point.  The European model suggests the system becomes a depression by Friday and then moves west, pushing onshore by Saturday night across the Texas-Louisiana border.

The GFS or American Model, places the system around the same area and same time, just not as strong.

Obviously no direct impact for South Florida, just a chance for tropical rains possibly through the end of the week. We'll be watching

Depression Forming?

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has raised the chances for a system to develop in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. 

The chances are now at 80% over a period of 5 days. They have been steadily rising since Saturday afternoon when they began at 20%. NHC has now deemed it Invest92L. This means it's an area they would like to INVESTigate further, 92 is just a tracking number, and "L" stands for the Atlantic Basin.

Satellite View

It does not look that impressive right now, but a broad counter clockwise spin is starting to come together between Alabama & Georgia. It continues to be pushed south by a thin line of clouds just to its north. That is a front meandering towards northern Florida. Once the front pushes the developing low into the warm waters of the Gulf, that's where we can get a tropical system.

Where could it form?

A system could organize anywhere in the area highlighted in red over the next 5 days. Everyone from Florida's Big Bend west to Louisiana should monitor closely.

Where will it go?

Invest92L will be a bit tricky to forecast.  Surrounding it, is the Bermuda high to the east, another high in the Gulf of Mexico, and another front moving south across the Heartland. It appears it may get trapped along the Gulf Coast. This could mean heavy rain across the entire region.

These are very early model runs, and as of this moment they do not have a good handle on the system. Some take it east and others west. We'll have to wait until new environmental data comes in.

Rain Worry

If this system crawls along the coast, heavy rainfall can be expected. Over open waters as much as 7 inches, while along the coast between 1 and 4 is being forecast. Even South Florida could see some pockets of heavy rain that could lead to street flooding issues.

This is a great reminder for South Floridians, that we are in hurricane season. Review your supplies and get what you need now. This way if a threat approaches us, you will be ready to meet head on whatever Mother Nature throws our way.

We'll be watching