Tropics Heating up in the Gulf

This coming week may see tropical activity develop in the Gulf of Mexico. A large area of clouds and rain impacting most of Florida, has a small chance at development.

As of  10 am Monday morning, the chances for development stay the sam as indicated further down in the blog. 

Hurricane season officially starts June 1st, but that is a man-made timeline. 

Tropical systems can occur at any time as long the ingredients for organization are met, and the main ingredient is hot water.  In order for systems to develop, you need at least 80 degrees of sea surface temperature. The Gulf of Mexico is one of the quickest bodies of water to warm up. Temps are presently running in the upper 70's closest to Florida's west coast (blue shaded area), but near 80 in the green and yellow areas.

NHC is Monitoring

Over the weekend the National Hurricane Center (NHC),  issued an outlook on the potential for a system to develop in the Gulf, either tropical or subtropical. Tropical basically meaning it has a warm core, while sub tropical typically has a cold center. Regardless of development, this feature can drop plenty of rain from Florida thru the southeast.

This is what they said:

A large area of clouds, rain and thunderstorms stretches from Western Cuba into the SE Gulf of Mexico, the Florida Straits, and the rest of the state. This is associated with a broad area of low pressure interacting with another low in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere. It could develop tropical or subtropical characteristics as it moves northward in the Gulf over the next few days.  It has a 30% chance for development in 48 hours and a 40% chance over 5 days. 

An update on its chances for development will be issued Monday at 11 am.  If it were to organize, it would do so in the are highlighted in orange.

What are the models saying?

Lets take a look at three model outlooks for the 15th of May.

The ECMWF model, places at least, a strong area of low pressure near the Panhandle by Tuesday. As shown by the small green dot near Pensacola. The large red area over the Atlantic is the Bermuda high.

This scenario still keeps South Florida, the NW Bahamas, and Cuba in a soggy mess.

South Florida may see on and off downpours with possible street flooding through the end of the work week.


We'll be monitoring for possible stronger development.

The GFS model also shows the Bermuda high in the Atlantic holding firm and keeping whatever develops, if anything, in the Gulf of Mexico.

This still keeps us with a plume of moisture hanging across the area leading to more widespread downpours through the end of the week.



The NAVGEM model is probably the most aggressive indicating a stronger and larger system brewing in the Gulf. No matter which model one focuses on, it seems South Florida and our neighbors will remain stuck in a rainy pattern for days. The area has been in a drought for months and this event could put in a big dent in that deficit.

Everyone across the state, should keep an eye out on this feature. At the very least it could be a huge rainmaker with the potential for localized street flooding and at the very worst it could organize and be accompanied by strong winds.  We'll keep you posted.