Chances for development continue to rise for low pressure in Caribbean Sea.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC), is monitoring an area of low pressure in the Northwestern Caribbean Sea for possible organization. The low level spin remains offshore Belize with most of the cloud cover and rain situated to the east/northeast by the Caymans, Cuba, & South Florida

This low should stay close to the Yucatan, maybe even moving onshore temporarily, before it begins a move toward the Gulf of Mexico.

 NHC is giving the Low, a 0% chance for development over the next 48 hours, and then a 50% chance over 5 days. If it were to develop, it would do so in the area highlighted in orange.

This Low is now "Invest 90L". This means its an area NHC would like to INVESTigate further. The 90 is just a tracking number while the "L" stands for the Atlantic Basin. 

The above graphic shows the spaghetti models through the next 5 days. Keep in mind since nothing has developed yet, there's no good starting point and without that, there's no good ending point. At this extremely early stage, the model runs are just giving us an educated guess.

They suggest the Low will move north searching for a gap in the atmosphere. By day 5, high pressure will be over the Atlantic with a front moving into the Nation's midsection. The system will try to slide in between the two.  

Why is the forecast calling for no development in the short term and high chances for the long?

 

As we speak, there are some strong upper level winds working against the Low, this is called wind shear. Those winds are responsible for keeping the low in check. It is shown in the graphic above as orange/brown areas marked as roadblocks.

 

As we go into the weekend, that shear weakens and give the low some breathing room as it glides over the warm water of the Gulf. This should give it enough energy to develop.

 Lets take a look at the two long range models

Scenario 1: Looks at the European Model, which develops either a tropical or subtropical system late in the week, moving across the Central Gulf of Mexico before eventually moving on-shore by Louisiana.

The model places heavy rain all across Florida.

The second scenario: Looks at the American model, the GFS. This has a system developing in the Gulf over the weekend and moving somewhere across Western Florida. This also gives us rounds of rain.

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