Named System in Gulf?

The chances for a system to develop in the Gulf of Mexico this holiday weekend are nearing 100%. 

Conditions will become favorable for a low to become a depression or a tropical storm. If it does develop, it will be called "Alberto".

 

Presently, the area of low pressure is sitting over the Yucatan Peninsula, but most of the cloud cover and rain is sitting to the Northeast. This rain is what may reach us over the next few days.

 

As of late Thursday night, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) was giving the low a 70% chance it could organize over 48 hours, and a very high 90% chance throughout 5 days. If it does develop, it would do so somewhere in the area highlighted red. This is NOT a forecast cone, its just where NHC thinks it may organize. A recon plane is on stand-by on Friday to check out the Low.

Spaghetti Models

The models are suggesting high pressure in the Atlantic will push the Low into the Eastern Gulf through the weekend. Possibly developing and aiming anywhere between West Florida and Louisiana. Notice when the models reach the coast, they do a loop de loop, this usually happens when they do not have a good handle on the forecast. Models need a good fix on the center and without that, there is no good starting point and therefore no good ending point.

Working Against the Low

There are very strong upper levels winds over Florida and the Western Gulf of Mexico, these are like huge road blocks in the atmosphere keeping the low in check. These winds are known as shear. On Thursday night the shear was still pretty strong and bullying the Low around.

But by the weekend, the shear relaxes and gives the Low plenty of breathing room to grow.  That is why the development chances are so high as we move into Saturday and Sunday.

Plenty of Fuel

Warm water is the fuel these tropical engines need to run. Waters over 80° provide all the energy the Low needs to grow and develop.

What about Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas?

Even if nothing develops, there is so much moisture in the Caribbean, that it should get dragged North. This means plenty of rain for Cuba, much of the State of Florida, and even the Bahamas. Some models place as much as 3 to five inches of rain with some higher totals in isolated areas. This will lead to localized flooding in areas of poor drainage.

We'll keep you posted.