Tuesday, August 18, 2015

New Tropical Storm "Danny"

A rapidly developing system has been born in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. It was a mere area of clouds and rain on Monday, by 11 am Tuesday it grew to a Depression, and by 5 pm it was categorized as Tropical Storm Danny.

This is just 1 of 5 areas we are keeping track of in the Atlantic basin. After weeks of no activity, it has suddenly come alive. 
 Tropical Storm "Danny" is very far away from with plenty of time to watch it.

This is the latest as of 5pm, direct from the National Hurricane Center.

Most of the models are in agreement that the system will continue to push west by high pressure to the north.

There is Saharan dust to its north but it has had little impact on keeping the storm at bay.  Unfortunately strong upper level winds ahead of it that could weaken it, appear to subside, dropping to a mere 3-5 mph.

This will allow "Danny" to grow in strength.  Most models suggest it could be a Category 2 (around 98 mph) just east of the Lesser Antilles by Sunday.

The cone reflects this, by showing the western movement over the next 5 days. DO NOT focus on the line in the middle.

Tropical systems do not travel in a straight line, they tend to wobble like a spinning top. This system could be anywhere within that cone of concern. 

The European model keeps the system moving across the Caribbean Sea, while the GFS turns it more northeast, in a path closer to the Leeward Islands.
No one wants to be impacted by a category 2 system, but if you have been following some of my previous posts, the Caribbean Islands are under a severe drought. While the wind and the surf are not welcome, the rain could be just what they needed.  Take a look at some of the conditions the drought has caused over the area. Not in the graphic, Jamaica losing most of its coffee crop and Cuba running about 75% dry.

We will be following this system in the days ahead and keeping you updated.

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