Wednesday, August 19, 2015

Danny , No Changes yet

Tropical Storm Danny has changed very little since Tuesday night when top winds were estimated to be at 50 miles per hour. Those tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center.

On the satellite view you can see bursts of thunderstorm activity in the form of red blobs. This activity has been intermittent.

Finding the exact center is rather difficult today due to all the upper cloud cover.  Because of this, if the models can't get a good starting point, it will not give you a good ending point.

As of early Wednesday morning, Tropical Storm Danny was (estimated) located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 40.2 West.

Danny is moving toward the west near 14 mph, and a track to the west-northwest is expected during the next 2 days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

What's working against it?:
It is still fighting some drier air to the north. On this image all the golds and oranges are different intensities of Saharan dust in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere. It is just north of Danny and could play a significant role in its future. Any little jog north from Danny, and that could be the end of the storm.

What's working for it?:
It appears the Bermuda high will keep steering Danny almost due west and just south enough of the dry air to stay alive. Its also moving over warm waters, and the shear will turn very light throughout the next few days. This could give Danny the breathing room it needs to grow and intensify.

Danny could become a hurricane on Thursday. Some models have it near Category 2 status by the weekend as it approaches  the Lesser Antilles.

Where is it going?

The models have shifted more to the NW Wednesday morning.

While on Tuesday they all aimed for the Windward Islands, now they appear to be pointing to the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.

No one wants a hurricane, but this region is under the worst drought in 5 years. While they may not want the wind or surge, they would welcome the rain.

The official forecast cone  is closer to the consensus, and calls for a more modest
strengthening with some slight decrease in intensity as Danny approaches the Lesser Antilles.

What is next?
The very long range models are very inconsistent at this point. Some dissipate Danny in the Caribbean, while others turn in NW possibly aiming for the Bahamas. As of this moment, all we can do is wait and see what the next suite of model runs tell us.  Keep checking back for the latest.

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