Thursday, August 20, 2015

Don't Discount Danny

Mother Nature has been trying to knock out Danny but it is failing.  On Wednesday, dry air made a big push to weaken the system and dissipate it all together but it refused. As of Thursday Morning, Danny is looking much better, almost thumbing its nose at the dry air trying to rob the moisture it needs to survive.

The visible satellite image is exactly what you would see if you were up in space looking down on earth.


  • More feeder bands are developing
  • Plenty of cloud cover around the center
  • And even an eye appears to be developing

The enhanced satellite view, gives different colors to t-storm activity.

In this imagery you will find:

  • Dark oranges, reds, and golds around the center. This means there is plenty of storms around the center.
  • Notice the clouds on the top part of the view. This is outflow from Danny at the upper levels of the atmosphere. Its almost like the exhaust in your car. In this case though, the more outflow, the better the chances for intensification.

Danny better hurry and take advantage of this window of opportunity where shear is weak and ocean waters are warm. If it does so, there is a chance it may become the season's first hurricane.

Where is it headed?

The models continue to slowly track the system more towards the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Bahamas than it did a mere 24 hours ago when it showed more of an impact across the Central Lesser Antilles.  What the models have a hard time forecasting is intensity.

In the short term, Danny has a chance go grow from lack of wind shear, but by the time it nears the islands it is expected to weaken to a tropical storm or even a depression.

The islands are watching closely as they need as much rain as they can get. They are under the worst drought since 2010.

The official cone from NHC, shows Danny becoming a hurricane by Friday and weakening once it reaches the islands.

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