Sunday, August 23, 2015

Following Danny's Footsteps?

A very weak Danny should provide some needed rain across the Leeward Islands and possibly Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. The center is almost completely exposed to the elements and further weakening is expected.

Weakening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Danny is expected to become a tropical depression on Monday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center.

What the islands should prepare for:

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area overnight and early Monday.

Tropical storm conditions
are possible elsewhere over the Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe northward overnight.

RAINFALL: Danny is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain over the Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola

The following is an update from the Puerto Rican weather office:

* FLOODING RAIN:
PREPARE FOR RAINFALL FLOODING HAVING POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS. POTENTIAL
IMPACTS INCLUDE:
    - RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES MAY QUICKLY BECOME SWOLLEN WITH SWIFTER
      CURRENTS AND OVERSPILL THEIR BANKS IN A FEW PLACES, ESPECIALLY
      IN USUALLY VULNERABLE SPOTS. SMALL STREAMS, CREEKS, CANALS,
      ARROYOS, AND DITCHES OVERFLOW.
    - FLOOD WATERS CAN ENTER SOME STRUCTURES OR WEAKEN FOUNDATIONS.
      SEVERAL PLACES MAY EXPERIENCE EXPANDED AREAS OF RAPID
      INUNDATION AT UNDERPASSES, LOW-LYING SPOTS, AND POOR DRAINAGE
      AREAS. SOME STREETS AND PARKING LOTS TAKE ON MOVING WATER AS
      STORM DRAINS AND RETENTION PONDS OVERFLOW. DRIVING CONDITIONS
      BECOME HAZARDOUS. SOME ROAD AND BRIDGE CLOSURES.

* WIND:
PREPARE FOR HAZARDOUS WIND HAVING POSSIBLE LIMITED IMPACTS ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE:
    - SCATTERED POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGES.

* TORNADOES:
PREPARE FOR A TORNADO EVENT HAVING POSSIBLE LIMITED IMPACTS ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE:
    - THE OCCURRENCE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN HINDER THE EXECUTION
      OF EMERGENCY PLANS DURING TROPICAL EVENTS.

* SURGE:
LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS.

FOLLOWING DANNY'S FOOTSTEPS?

More Activity:
Meanwhile, another system is following in Danny's footsteps. Satellite imagery suggest it is showing signs of growth.

Right now its in the Mid Atlantic between African and the Windward Islands. Its surroundings are favorable for organization and it could become a depression over the next few days.

NHC is giving this feature:
Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Satellite imagery is starting to show some banding, and even thunderstorms developing around the center of circulation.

It still has a long haul ahead but if it can continue its growth process, it just may be a tropical repeat for the Caribbean. Indeed Cape Verde season is underway.


This is what the latest models runs are showing.  Looks like a "Danny wanna-be" . If it were to become a tropical storm it would be called' "Erika".





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