Danny drops to Cat 1

We mentioned in our previous posts that Danny would go on an intensity roller coaster ride. On Friday it reached category 3 in almost 12 hours and now its going downhill fast.

As of the 11 am advisory, winds are down to 90 mph, a category one. Friday afternoon it was a major system category three.

Danny will continue to aim for the islands. Because of this advisories have gone up for the following locations:

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
The Meteorological Service of Antigua has issued a tropical storm watch for Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla.

The Meteorological Service of Curacao has issued a tropical storm watch for Saba and St. Eustatius.

The Meteorological Service of St. Maarten has issued a tropical storm watch for St. Maarten.

What do the advisories mean?
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. You should start preparing for the possibility of a direct impact. Get all your supplies ready and start protecting your property.

Danny still has some rain, but its only impacting a very small area. As a matter of fact these hurricane force winds only stretch out from the center a mere 15 miles, while tropical storm force winds of over 40 mph stretch out 60 miles.  This system remains a headache for the shipping lanes.

As of Saturday morning;
You no longer see the eye as was possible yesterday.

Most of the rain, shown in oranges and golds, are actually to the east of the center. This means the western side of the system is exposed to the elements. This is due to strong upper level winds known as shear that are tearing Danny apart on the west.

These winds will continue to get stronger as the hurricane heads towards the islands.

More recon planes are scheduled for today to get a better gauge of Danny and determine is real intensity.

Danny will remain on a northwesterly course possibly impacting the Leeward islands by the start of next week.  After that Puerto Rico and Hispaniola may be impacted by Danny as well.

NEW TODAY:
This is from NHC:

• Although the guidance agrees on the overall trend, there remains a significant discrepancy between the dynamical and statistical model solutions on the weakening rate. 
• The GFS, ECMWF, and HWRF models show Danny weakening quickly and opening up into a trough over the eastern Caribbean.
• Conversely, the SHIPS and LGEM models show a slower decay.  
• The NHC intensity forecast is between these scenarios and is in best agreement with the intensity model consensus.

What this basically means, is that estimating how strong  the system will be 2- 3 days out is very difficult.

The atmosphere is always changing, and the system itself goes through ups and downs.

NHC relies on a host of models. The best ones are not in full agreement, with some weakening it to the point where it is just a wave, while others keep it stronger.

All we can do is watch and wait.



The local NWS Office is not too worried about it:

HURRICANE DANNY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT HAS DRY
AIR, WIND SHEAR, AND POSSIBLY LAND INTERACTION AHEAD OF IT. GLOBAL
MODELS DEGENERATE DANNY INTO AN OPEN WAVE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR DANNY`S PROGRESS.

Stay tuned, we'll keep you posted.