Erika Leftovers and New Fred

By now we all know the story of Erika.  It caused great havoc across Dominica with more than 12 inches of rain, leading to flooding land and mudslides. Almost two dozen people lost their lives.

More tropical downpours barreled their way through Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic and Haiti, before the system fell below tropical depression standards over Cuba.

The remnants slowly made their way into the Florida Straits by Saturday drenching South Florida overnight.

This is what NHC is saying about Ex-Erika on Sunday morning:

It appears there are no signs of re-development at this time, but it could still drop plenty of rain and cause gusty winds across Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and Monday.

But, they add- IF upper-level winds become favorable, it could once again become a tropical cyclone.

These are the chances of Erika's remnants coming back to life.

• Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
• Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

What can we expect?  This is from the local NWS Office:

• DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT.

• THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA.

• FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS:

* A PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COASTAL
  BROWARD...COASTAL ...COLLIER...COASTAL MIAMI DADE... COASTAL
  PALM BEACH...FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE...GLADES...HENDRY... INLAND
  BROWARD...INLAND COLLIER...INLAND MIAMI DADE...INLAND PALM
  BEACH...MAINLAND MONROE...METRO BROWARD...METRO MIAMI DADE AND
  METRO PALM BEACH.

In the Tropics:

There's another new Tropical storm by the name of "Fred".  Its way out in the Far Eastern Atlantic.

These are the top lines from NHC regarding "Fred".

• Satellite imagery show more rain developing in the system.
• That rain is wrapping around the center
• It has a well defined inner core
• The atmosphere ahead appears favorable for Fred to grow stronger
• The models take Fred to hurricane status in 24 hours
• Those same models show weakening in 36 hours.

Based on this track and intensity forecast, the Meteorological Service of the Cape Verde Islands has issued a Hurricane Warning for those islands. We believe this may the first such advisories on record for this region.

Below, you will find the latest model runs, along with its forecast cone. This should just be a worry for the Cape Verde Islands and the shipping lanes.