Saturday, August 22, 2015

Danny: Weaker but not done

Danny continues to weaken and is now a tropical storm.  Satellite imagery shows that the SW quadrant is now where the center of the system is located. Strong and dry upper winds are responsible for that.

There are still some golds and oranges in this enhanced satellite view reflecting continued thunderstorm coverage, but not enough to surround the center. It is not a symmetrical nor a healthy system at this point.

According to hurricane hunters:

  • Reports show that Danny has weakened below hurricane strength
  • Top winds are now estimated to be 65 mph with higher gusts
  • Those winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center.
  • Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

For the time being, Danny continues to be a nuisance for the shipping lanes.

Advisories still in place:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
  • Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla
  • Saba and St. Eustatius
  • St. Maarten
  • Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

What's next?
For the time being the forecast track places Danny by the Leeward Islands Sunday night or Monday morning and by Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in 3 to 4 days.


After that?

  • The models are calling for a mid to upper level dip in the jet, that should slide off the East Coast of Florida in 120 hours. 
  • This will force whatever is left of Danny to curve over the Bahamas and make a northwestward turn.
  • The official NHC cone shows that NW turn 
  • We may end up getting some rain from a Depression, wave or disturbance...whatever is left of Danny, by early next week.


Local NWS office says:
This is what they are thinking:
NHC CONTINUES TO WEAKEN HURRICANE  DANNY IN THEIR
CURRENT FORECAST INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

HOWEVER,  WE STILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR DANNY`S PROGRESS AND LATEST FORECASTS.

No comments:

Post a Comment