Do or Die for Erika

Its a crucial day for Erika. Its aiming for our friends in Dominican Republic and Haiti.
It has not gotten any stronger, remaining with winds of 50 mph, and its still not that organized... but don't let that fool you.  Erika dumped plenty of rain over the Leeward Islands on Thursday flooding parts of Dominica and claiming at least 4 lives.

Its been raining in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands all night long. This will be the biggest threat
over portions of the the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti today. These rains could produce flash floods and mud slides.

Satellite, most of the rain remains to the east of the center as well as the strongest of the winds.

The center is not looking healthy and its hard to pin down. This is not good for the models because if they do not have a good staring point, there will be no good ending points.

A recon plane is investigating to get a better idea of Erika's health.

Right now:

• Tropical storm winds of 39 mph and above are impacting the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico for a few more hours. 
• Those winds will travel next to portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas
• By Saturday near the Central Bahamas
• NW Bahamas Saturday night.
• Rain totals are expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches

So far according to NHC this is what the models are thinking.:

• The global models have shifted westward with a faster forward speed.  
• A west-northwestward motion is expected for the next 2 days. 
• After that, a northwestward and northward turn and a decrease in forward speed are forecast as Erika moves around the western edge of the Bermuda high.

The updated cone is to the west of and faster than Thursday night's cone.
After that time, the NHC models are not consistent and are left more or less the same to keep some continuity since they really don't have a good grasp on what will happen.

Impacting Erika:
Strong upper winds will continue to shear it.
This may is may even increase during the 48 hours.

What next?
If Erika survives its run-in with Dominican Republic which is home to the largest mountain in all of the Caribbean,  there is a chance for some intensification Saturday and Sunday.

The NHC track now takes Erika inland over Florida, weakening as it moves over the Peninsula.

NHC says: Confidence, as expected with the bad model output, in the intensity forecast remains very low.
In the long run Interests in eastern and central Cuba, as well as the southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, should monitor the progress of Erika.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of France has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic
* Haiti
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

This is from the local NWS Miami office:

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL HAVE
SOME IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AND
THEN MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
MOISTURE WILL LINGER HOWEVER AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS SO
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.