As of Wednesday morning, Erika remains a weak Tropical Storm but its showing signs of further organization. On satellite imagery you will notice some clouds moving west to east, these are from strong upper level winds that are keeping Erika in check.
At the same time, the golds,oranges, and reds, represent increased thunderstorm activity. This means Erika is holding its own.
Most models continue to aim Erika towards the Leeward Islands, then the Bahamas, and eventually if nothing changes, South Florida.
Remember, this system is still far away from us, with an uncertain future. Even though we are in the cone, this is not the time to panic. Just make sure you review your supply list and ready your property in case we do get a direct hit.
Erika will remain on a WNW track by the Bermuda high at least for the next three days.
After that, models show a faster moving storm.
GFS takes a much weaker Erika west-northwestward
ECMWF run is stronger with Erika with a track farther to the right.
This is the official cone from NHC:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
New tropical storm warnings have been issued for Puerto Rico, the
Virgin Islands, and several other islands in the northeastern
Caribbean by their respective Meteorological
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Puerto Rico
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
This is what the local weather office is saying:
THE CURRENT OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS ERIKA REACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AS A TROPICAL
STORM BY SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AS A
HURRICANE ON SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD
TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ERIKA, SO THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...POTENTIAL IMPACTS MAY
NOT BE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL
INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA AS IT TRACKS WEST NORTHWEST THE NEXT SEVERAL