Maria on the ropes

Early recon suggests Maria has more thunderstorm activity on the Northern side of the storm but still remains a disheveled looking system.

Hurricane hunters also found light winds on the West and Southwest sectors of Maria. They clocked 45 mph winds on the Eastern side, but could not detect a well defined center of circulation. This is not a well organized system.

So why are they still keeping it as a Tropical Storm? 

NHC says recon found flight level winds indicating there is still a broad circulation and so they will keep it as a storm. 

Recon has yet to analyze the northern end of Maria where they believe the strongest winds will be found.

There are the things still working against Maria:

• An upper low ahead of it is causing shear and keeping Maria weak. This low should remain for another 2-3 days.
• Dry air is moving in from the South

What Maria has in its favor:

• Determination. If it can survive all these roadblocks, shear will relax in the long haul and it could get stronger.
• Models now have it becoming a hurricane on Tuesday

The models keep pushing Maria through the islands and ultimately making a turn north over the Southeastern Bahamas. At this stage, wind will not be a problem but the rain will be. From the Leewards though Puerto Rico, flooding from heavy rain could be a threat.

The official forecast cone tracks Maria over most of the Lesser Antilles and then push it to the Northwestern Bahamas. South Florida is NOT in the cone, but we should keep our eyes on it, just in case it decides to surprise us.

Aside from Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings, there is also the concern for flooding for the islands. Puerto Rico has issued the following statement.

• THERE IS A SERIOUS CONCERN FOR A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING EVENT ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINS FROM IRENE.  THERE IS ALSO A CONCERN FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER TRACKS.

• REGARDING THE COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR.

We'll keep watching it.

Maria

A recon flight has been probing Maria since 9:30 am. So far initial readings are not that impressive: Pressure is around 1008 to 1009 mb up from 1005 yesterday. Top winds are hovering near 35 mph.

As more data comes in we'll get a better handle on its health and a good fix on the center. This may lead to a repositioning and maybe a different cone forecast.


Communication problems from a Thursday night recon mission failed to fully get a clear view of the inner workings of Maria.

Some more thunderstorms are developing in the Northern semi-circle of Maria this morning. It still remains a ragged looking storm with the center of circulation exposed to the elements on the Southern sector with all the rain on the Northern side.



There are many things working against Maria:

• An upper low ahead of it is causing shear and keeping Maria weak
• Dry air is moving in from the South

What Maria has in its favor:

• The shear is expected to relax late Today
• Models are being very aggressive now, keeping Maria as a storm and even intensifying it as she nears the Northwestern Bahamas.

The forecast maps below show how weak or strong the shear will be through Monday. The reds and yellows represent weak shear while the green and blues suggest stronger shear. Right now, Maria is dealing with strong upper winds to the Northeast, but by Saturday it relaxes over Hispaniola. Could it be enough for Maria to get its act together?

The models are now more in consensus taking the system through the Leeward Islands and then Puerto Rico.  At this stage, wind will not be a problem but the rain will. They could see some flooding as Maria moves over them over the weekend.

The official forecast cone tracks Maria over most of the Lesser Antilles and then push it to the Northwestern Bahamas. South Florida is NOT in the cone, but we should keep our eyes on it, just in case it decides to surprise us.

Aside from Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings, there is also the concern for flooding for the islands. Puerto Rico has issued the following statement.

• THERE IS A SERIOUS CONCERN FOR A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING EVENT ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINS FROM IRENE.  THERE IS ALSO A CONCERN FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER TRACKS.

• REGARDING THE COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR.

We'll keep watching it.

Maria a worry? Only if it survives.

The Forecast Cone for Tropical Storm Maria shifted west on Thurday and in the long run it could come close to South Florida....that's if it survives.

Here is the latest:

• Maria is looking awful on satellite with most of the storms far removed to the northeast of the center of circulation.
• Right now conditions are a bit hostile in the upper levels of the atmosphere but they will become more favorable in the days ahead.
• Even if it falls apart into a wave, it may still come back to life.

The models are in fair agreement that whatever remains of Maria over the next few days, should impact the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Advisories have been issued for parts of the Leeward Islands.

The biggest threat from this system will be in the form of rain, it could produce flash floods, land and mudslides.

Where is it headed?

• Maria is on the south side of the Bermuda high
• It should move west for the next three days
• By the fourth day, IF IT SURVIVES. the Bermuda high moves east and allows whatever is left of Maria to turn north. The question is... Will it miss land? We'll have to wait first to see if it survives and then if  it will be strong enough to be a worry.

Busy NHC

Plenty of activity in the Tropics. This Thursday, NHC is following Hurricane Katia, Tropical Storm Maria, and Tropical Storm Nate. I will cover Katia, and Nate here, I have given Maria a separate blog update all its own since it could be a headache down the road.

You can see the three systems on the graphic to the left.

We have "Nate in the Gulf", "Katia" in the middle of the Atlantic, and "Maria" in the far Eastern Atlantic.

Katia is being impacted by shear and thus is looking a little disheveled. The western side is exposed to the elements with dry air filtering in.



The eyewall replacement cycle I mentioned on Tuesday halted for some reason and has kept her intensity in check.

It seems Katia may not get a chance to get its act together again. It has about 48 hours worth of warm water fuel, after that, it's the hurricane graveyard (Northern Atlantic) for her.

Katia will not go down quietly however, while she may lose her tropical characteristics in the days ahead, she will remain a powerful force throughout the higher latitudes posing a huge threat to marine interests.

Katia should thread the needle as far as her track is concerned.

Most models move her in between Bermuda and the East Coast as she heads to the Northern Atlantic. About the only effects to be felt will be in the form of choppy seas and dangerous rip-currents.

We now turn our attention to the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico. We now have Tropical Storm Nate. It remains stationary in the Southeastern Gulf soaking up heat energy. It may become a hurricane over the next 24 hours.

It will eventually move north, then west and possibly impact Central Mexico in about 5 days.

Katia - in a pit stop

Katia appears to be losing a bit of its fury after revving up to Major Status over the holiday weekend. Even though it remains a well structured hurricane with good banding and outflow, its eye is no longer visible.

It is undergoing an eyewall replacement process, almost like a race car going through a pit stop and replacing its tires before going back out full throttle, this is similar to what is happening to Katia right now.  It should remain a major storm for at least another 24-48 hours before running out of fuel in the form of warm water.

Traffic will also get a tad more congested as upper winds will begin to move in and hopefully keep Katia away from the East Coast. As of this writing it should miss Bermuda.   OK, enough with the racing analogies... but you get the idea.


Its present movement has been a tad jerky. NHC described it as "EXHIBITING A TROCHOIDAL MOTION". This is terminology you don't hear about every day, but it's almost like a bicycle wheel where the eye of the hurricane rotates in a circle while the entire storm moves in a straight motion.


Even though it's moving Trochoidally, most models agree that Katia should track in between Bermuda and the US, being pushed back out to sea by a front and strong upper winds coming off the Eastern Seaboard. Once it loses its warm fuel supply it should weaken rapidly and ultimately be absorbed by the same front protecting the coast.

Here is the official forecast cone from NHC.

Katia is stronger

There is no doubt that Hurricane Katia is a good looking strong system. Satellite imagery clearly shows a well organized storm, with an eye at its center, good feeder banding and nice outflow.

Intensity forecasting is one of the most difficult things to do but as of now, conditions appear favorable for Katia to continue growing in strength. By the end of the week it should be out of the warm water stream that is feeding her now, and she should begin to lose her intensity.

It will continue to head on a northwesterly track over the next few days as high pressure builds back toward the west. This should keep Katia aiming for the East Coast.  Models are in fair agreement that by mid week, the high will move back into the Atlantic and permit Katia to turn north. The system may get uncomfortably close to the US before turning away.

This is the official forecast cone. By day four, Katia should make a turn North, if it doesn't,  Katia could impact the Northeast. They are still cleaning up from Irene's wrath.

Lee is done, not its wrath

Ex-Lee update: 93,000 customers out statewide, as heavy soaking rains continue to bring trees down across Alabama.

NHC has issued its last advisory on Tropical Storm Lee. It was downgraded to a depression on Sunday while it slowly moved away from the Gulf States now aiming  for the Tennessee Valley.

This remnant low will continue to produce enormous amounts of rain. Total accumulations might reach 15 - 20 inches through Tuesday.

The Tennessee Valley and the Southern Appalachians could see 4-8 with isolated amounts of up to 10 inches in the days ahead. This will lead to flooding fears just like that experienced in many parts of Coastal Louisiana.

As the storm pulls away there is still one more worry according to the National Hurricane Center, "When a tropical storm makes landfall, it's common for it to form spin off tornadoes. In this case, the threat of twisters is from Louisiana to Mississippi, Georgia and Florida, adding insult to injury," said Dennis Feltgen. spokesperson for NHC.


Now we wait and see what damages Ex-Lee will deliver on it's new path.

East Coast Worry

Katia continues on a NW course and nothing appears to be out there to make it do otherwise. Katia looks good on satellite imagery with plenty of banding and some good outflow but it is still encountering some light to moderate shear over the NW quadrant. This should keep it as a category one for a few more days.

What is unsettling is that more and more models take Katia farther west before they suggest a turn to the North. If this trend continues, it may come uncomfortably close to the Northeast. They are still cleaning up from Irene from a week or so ago.

These are the latest model runs.                         

 This is the official forecast cone from NHC

"Slow-Lee"

We will watch Tropical Storm Lee make its way slowly though the Gulf States. It is encountering some shear on the western side of the storm and that should keep it in check as far as additional growth.

The satellite imagery illustrates how all the cloud cover and rainfall is happening on the eastern side of the storm. The western edge is exposed to the elements allowing drier air to filter in and keeping Lee from getting any stronger.

Models do not show the shear weakening through the duration of Lee.

Because it will be moving so slow in the days ahead, the area can expect huge amounts of rain.

The above forecast amounts are for the upcoming 48 hour period, or through Sunday night. From Pensacola, Florida through Mobile, Alabama and in through New Orleans, Louisiana the amounts range between six and nine inches. Long range outlooks suggest as much as 20 inches by the time Lee moves out.

New Depression 13

There is a brand new depression in the Gulf of Mexico, the 13th of the season. A recon plane flew into it overnight and found a weak  depression with much of the rain on the Eastern side of the center.

A high pressure system to the north will keep TD 13 in the Gulf today, but models still agree at weakness developing in the atmosphere for TD 13 to take. Even as this road opens, it will not move quickly. TD 13 will travel very slowly over Louisiana dumping plenty of rain. That is the big worry with this system, not the winds. We can expect up to 10-15 inches of rain   (some areas as much as 20), falling during the next 5 days.

The changing graphic below courtesy of the New Orleans Local Weather office, highlights the major impacts from this system across the area. They are broken down as WIND, RAIN, FLOODING.

Katia: East Coast Worry?

Katia is on the comeback trail after weakening on Thursday. A huge burst of thunderstorm activity is trying to surround the center once again. It could regain hurricane status by late today. The downturn came at the hands of moderate shear to its northwest quadrant due to an upper low nearby.

What to look for on Friday.

• Will outflow be visible again
• Will thunderstorm activity continue to rise
• Will the shear due to the upper low begin to weaken even more

If all of the above things happen, then Katia should be able to rebound.

In the long run, the forecast cone continues to jog west on the 5th day. The question is, will it turn out to be a threat to the East Coast. From the latest model run below, it appears Katia will stay away, threatening Bermuda.

This is the latest forecast cone. Looks a tad worrisome for the Middle Atlantic states.

Just Sitting There

An area of disturbed weather sits in the Gulf of Mexico about 100 miles South of Louisiana. It is soaking up plenty of heat energy and trying to get organized.  NHC is giving it a 70% chance it could become a depression over the next 2 days. A recon plane will check it out today.



Satellite  imagery shows there is plenty of thunderstorm activity within this disturbance as it slowly drifts northwest. Everyone in the Gulf should monitor it closely.

Some of the rain associated with it could expand into South Florida today giving us another soggy afternoon.




Models this morning still do not have a handle on where it may go. When you see tracks fan out like they are doing in the latest run, it means confidence is very low for the long range. Conventional wisdom suggests it should become a depression soon and even possibly a Tropical Storm (it would be Lee), and drift toward Louisiana dumping plenty of rain there.  Nothing to do but sit and wait.

Lee in the Gulf

The next system after Katia will be Lee. There is an elongated area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico with a real good chance it could become a depression over the next few days.

If it grows stronger and becomes a Tropical Storm, it will be named "Lee".  This area of clouds and rain in the Gulf has a 60% chance of developing over the next 48 hours. 

The big question with a tropical system so close to us, is... "where is it headed?".  The answer is up in the air... really.

We need to watch for some strong upper level winds moving into the region. They will dictate where this system will ultimately end up, the problem is, the models can't agree as to where and when the upper winds will appear.

As you look closely at the latest model runs, many take it North into Louisiana, others into Texas, and even some over the Panhandle.                         When models are this widespread, they really don't have a good handle on what is happening right now. We may need to wait another 12 hours for them to figure out what's going on and to deliver a more concise outlook.