Two to Watch

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring two areas for development this week. The first is near the Windward Islands and the second is in the middle of the equatorial Atlantic.

In the Tropics

 

The wave near the Islands is now known as Invest97L. This stands for an area NHC would like to INVEST-igate further, 97 is a tracking number, and "L" stands for Atlantic Basin. The chances for organization stand at 50% over a period of 5 days in area highlighted orange.

Wave by the Lesser Antilles

The latest:

• Located: 12.7°N 57.3°W
• Top Winds: 30 mph +/-
• Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
• Size of Wave: 138 miles

This wave is roughly a few hundred miles to the East of the Windward Islands. It has some thunderstorm activity and is moving west at about 20 mph.

Where is it going?

Nothing has developed yet so models at this stage of the game are providing an educated guess. They suggest the system could move over the Southernmost Windward Islands, track across the Caribbean Sea, and possibly emerge into the Gulf of Mexico in the long term.  

• Working against it: Presently it's moving too fast and not allowing the center circulation to organize. This will be the pattern thru midweek. 
• Working for it: Plenty of warm ocean water.

Impacts for the Windward Islands & Southern Leeward Islands will be in the form of heavy rain and gusty winds from late Monday thru Tuesday morning.

Once in the Western Caribbean Sea, its forward speed is expected to decrease, and the atmospheric conditions will allow it to possibly organize and become a depression/storm.

Wave #2

This second wave is the small area of clouds just below the Cape Verde Islands. Some Saharan Dust is seen to the north blowing off the West Coast of Africa. As it moves away from the continent and the dust, conditions will become better for it to develop sometime midweek. Its chances for organization stand as of 2 PM Monday,at 70% over a period of 5 days.

Where is it going?

There are no spaghetti model runs yet. The one model we found this morning was the European, and it places an area of low pressure midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, shown with the red "L", by Thursday.

We need to monitor both of these systems as the can grow and impact land areas down the road.

Cape Verde Season

This is a stark reminder that we are now in Cape Verde Season, a season within a season. From now through mid October more and more waves will come out of the West Coast of Africa, mover over the Cape Verde Islands (how the season gets its name), and pose a threat to the Caribbean and the U.S.

I urge you to review your plans, will you stay or go if a storm threatens. Do you have the supplies you need to weather a storm. If not, act now while it's all calm. This way, you'll be ready for whatever Mother Nature sends our way.

We'll be watching