Laura Looking Better

Over the last few days we were mentioning how disheveled Laura appeared,  as of Sunday morning,  that has changed. Laura is looking very healthy.

That has been unfortunate, because it has tracked over Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, and Haiti with torrential rain and howling strong gusty winds. The center moved over Santo Domingo around midnight and has hugged the Southern Coast of Haiti through much of the night.

Satellite

Sunday morning the system is more symmetrical.  Notice the circulation with winds rushing in at the surface towards the center in a counterclockwise fashion. They are feeding the center with the moisture it needs. 

Now look at the upper portion of the satellite loop and you will see clouds streaming in the opposite direction... those are the same winds rushing out but in the upper levels of the atmosphere. It's known as outflow. When you have that, the engine is firing on all cylinders.

Track

Models all keep the center of the storm mostly over Cuba. Tropical storm force winds of over 39 mph, fan out from the center 140 miles. Depending on the position of the center as it passes south of Florida, some of those strong gusty winds and rain could impact the Keys.

Next 24-48 hrs for South Florida

The Keys: Tropical Storm Watch in effect from Ocean Reef to Key West. This means winds greater than 39 mph, heavy rain, and rough marine conditions are POSSIBLE.  This would be the time to finish any preparations you may need.

• Tropical storm force winds are possible for much of Monday until the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico.  
• Some strong rain bands with winds up to 50-55 mph are possible Monday afternoon. 
• 1" - 3" inches of rain are forecast
• Marine conditions will be rough. Large waves can be expected in the south facing shores. 
• Tides are running over half a foot above normal. The storm could cause an additional 1 - 2 feet of saltwater flooding at the next high tide. The high tides on Monday will be at 2:13 am and 3:16 pm.

Miami Dade and Broward: The impacts should be minimal. As of this update NWS does not expect Marco in the Gulf to have any impact on Laura's Direction.

As Laura moves closer to the region, winds are forecast to pick up. 
Some pockets of heavy rain could move through the area 
Winds 25 - 35 mph with possible higher gusts during a rain band 
Even as Laura moves into the Gulf, squally weather may be present through Tuesday.

The Islands

Laura's center has been hugging the Southern Coast of Dominican Republic and Haiti with strong winds and torrential rains. This will cause dangerous flooding conditions on Sunday.

The system has also shifted further west. The center should stay mostly over Caribbean waters rather than crossing into the Atlantic and emerging over the North Coast of Haiti. This should keep the center fed with warm ocean moisture and not have a direct impact with any of Haiti's high terrain. Laura should then track over Haiti, then directly over Cuba for much of Sunday and Monday. The entire island will be impacted. 

Impacts:

Heavy rainfall can be expected as the storm moves west. Flooding, land, and mudslides are possible for much of Sunday.  

• Dominican Republic & Haiti: Up to 12 inches of rain are forecast 
• Turks and Caicos, SE Bahamas, & Jamaica: 1 - 3 inches of rain possible :  
• Central Bahamas & Andros Island: Tropical Storm force winds and some heavy rain is possible late Sunday and into Monday. 
• Cuba: Conditions to worsen late Sunday. Heavy rain and very strong gusty winds will travel the entire length on the island through Monday/Tuesday.
• Jamaica: May also get squally weather as the system moves north of you.

What Next?

Once in the Gulf Laura could intensify into a category two before making landfall across Louisiana sometime Wednesday. Normally that would be terrible, but a mere 48 hours earlier they would have been struck by Marco an expected hurricane by then.

Here's is some interesting data regarding Gulf Systems

Rare Pair - Two in the Gulf

• Laura and Marco would be the third time in history that two named systems were in the Gulf of Mexico at the same. The others were, Treasure Coast Tropical Storm and Cuba Brownsvile Hurricane 9/5/1933 and Tropical Storm Beulah and unnamed Tropical Storm in 6/18/1959

Not the first time Louisiana has had more than 1 hurricane hit in a season

• 3 times in 1860 ( Hurricanes 1,4,6)
  
• 2 in 1893 ( Hurricane #8, Chenier, Caminanda)
  
• 2 in 1985 ( Danny & Juan)
  
• 3 in 2005 ( Cindy, Katrina & Rita)
  

Shortest time between two HURRICANE strikes

• If Marco and Laura hit as hurricanes, the previous time gap between hurricanes in Louisiana was 17 days.
  
• Hurricane #4 and the Hurricane #6 in 1860. * prior to 1950 hurricanes were not names, unless they were truly devastating such as Chenier and Caminanda. 
• In general-- The shortest time between two hurricane hitting anywhere in the U.S. was 23 hours in 1933. They were the Treasure Coast hurricane on 9/4/1933 and then the Cuba-Brownsville Hurricane on 9/5/1933. 

Last Louisiana Hurricane Impact in August

• Cat 1 Isaac in 2012. 

We'll be watching.