Laura & Marco

 Tracking Two

Laura remains disheveled in the Eastern Caribbean Sea while Marco is in the northwestern Caribbean getting stronger as of Saturday morning.

Laura

Laura shows signs every once in a while of getting its house in oder with better defined surface circulation and more pockets of heavy rain. However, it quickly goes back to being just a big mass of clouds and rain. 

Its organization or lack thereof, will be something to watch the next 48 hours. There is very little shear, or strong upper winds that could keep it in check, this may give it an opportunity to grow. But, it still has plenty of interaction with land areas ahead that should limit that possibility.

Laura's Track

The feature guiding Laura's movement has not changed, and that is a huge dome of high pressure in the Atlantic Ocean.  It will move west dragging Laura along for the next 3 days until it moves in the Gulf of Mexico. 

Something to keep in mind, a tropical system does not travel in a straight line, they spin as they move forward. This spin will make Laura wobble north and south over the next few days. Once in the Gulf it could briefly reach hurricane status as it moves towards Louisiana. This will only come to pass it Laura can remain a tropical system. It will move over plenty of mountainous terrain from Dominican Republic, to Haiti, and much of Cuba. If any of it is left after that, it may have a chance at reaching hurricane strength.

If it reaches the Gulf, it could catch up to Marco. Most forecasts suggests they will remain far apart from each other. If they do interact, then maybe the Fujiwara effect may come into play. See my previous post on this.  

Impacts

• Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, & Puerto Rico: Winds over 39 mph with higher gusts at times with the potential for heavy rain for the rest of Saturday. One to three inches with isolated pockets of five inches are possible.
• Later Saturday into Sunday, the wind and rain picks up over Dominican Republic, Haiti, Turks and Caicos, as well as the SE Bahamas. Three to six with up to eight inches of rain are possible.
• Central Bahamas & Eastern Cuba could see those tropical storm force winds and the rain on Sunday.

Flooding, land and mudslides are a concern for all in Laura's path.

While only the Lower Keys remain in the cone, squally weather may be possible over South Florida on Monday.  The overall health of Laura as it nears South Florida, will determine the impacts.

Marco

The tropical storm is forecast to strengthen as it makes its way into the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. Once there, it could try to reach hurricane status, but as of this moment, NHC suggests it may struggle to do that. 

They kept it as a tropical storm in the forecast as of Saturday morning. The northeastern edge of the Yucatan Peninsula may feel some of Marco on Saturday, eventually it will get steered towards the Louisiana/Texas Coastline by the early part of next week.