TS Laura & the Fujiwara Effect?

Hurricane Hunters Find TD13 has strengthened into Tropical Storm Laura

Overview:

The image shows a comma shaped cloud pattern just east of the Leeward Islands. The system is exposed to dry air to the south with rain only on the northern side. The structure is also elongated with the center at the surface being hundreds of miles away from the center in the midlevels of the atmosphere. 

Having said that, NOAA recon found TD13 strong enough to be upgraded to tropical storm Laura. This sets a record for the earliest "L" storm. The previous title holder was Luis from August 29, 1995.

Impacts:

• The Leeward Islands, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Turks & Caicos, & SE Bahamas, the forecast calls for 1" to 3" with some areas as much as 5" 
• For theVirgin Islands & Puerto Rico, totals range between 3" - 6". This may lead to flash flooding.

Where is it going?

There is not one perfect model. If there were we would only need one. Each is tasked with a different parameter to forecast. This is what you see in the cone of concern from NHC which is a combination of all the runs.

For the next 3 - 4 days, the forecast track remains almost unchanged, with the Atlantic High Pressure system pushing Laura northwest. By the time it nears South Florida, the high retreats and allows the system to turn more to the north. Laura could be in the Gulf of Mexico by then.

The GFS & UKMET models have the system practically moving over the Caribbean and South of Cuba. This would keep it weak as it would interact with land. It would however cause heavy rain and gusty winds. Flooding would be an issue for our neighbors to the south.

How strong will it be?

This graph, courtesy cyclone cane.com, shows how strong the system could actually get.  The bottom shows hours in time. The forecasts are all over the place with just as many keeping it as a depression as there are intensifying it to a hurricane. A handful push it to major hurricane in 5 days with winds over 111 mph.

We should keep a close eye on Laura. There could still be many fluctuations in strength and direction. 

Now comes the interesting part: The Fujiwara Effect

Once Laura is in the Gulf of Mexico, it may come very close to TD14. This may alter their trajectories turning both of them more towards the north-northwest. 

What happens if they meet?

If they get close enough where their outer rain bands can touch, the larger system absorbs the smaller one. This is known as the Fujiwara Effect. 

The last time this happened was in 2017 in the Pacific Ocean where the larger system, Hurricane Hilary on the right, absorbed the smaller Tropical Storm Irwin on the left. They do not become one huge mega hurricane.  For this effect to happen, it would need plenty of open water. IF both TD13 & 14, reach the same region it would be too close to land. It could however, dump plenty of rain across the Gulf States.