Gulf & Caribbean Worries

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is closely monitoring the progress of two areas in the Atlantic Basin.

Satellite Loop of Atlantic Ocean Tuesday

These are great loops because they show the transition between night and day. Between Infrared imagery, that allows us to see systems at night, to visible daytime views.  What we have are two tropical features , the first in the Eastern Caribbean Sea, Invest97L, and the other SW of the Cape Verde Islands, Invest98L.

Invest97L

This wave dropped plenty of rain over Trinidad & Tobago, with impressive overnight lightning and street flooding. Northern Venezuela and the Windward Islands also had downpours from the wave.

NHC says it's still producing disorganized thunderstorms along with gusty winds. Satellite imagery indicates the axis of the wave is now in the Eastern Caribbean Sea:

Location: 13.2°N 65.4°W 
Maximum Winds: 35 mph */-
Moving: E at 20 mph

Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb or 29.79"

97L is still moving a bit fast and not allowing a spin to develop. But NHC suggests that in about 48 hours it will slow down and then possibly develop into a depression or a storm near the Central Caribbean Sea. Chances of that happening are at 60%.

Where is it going?

Model runs have tracks that take it to the Yucatan Peninsula or Gulf of Mexico. If this comes to pass, outside of direct impacts in those areas, South Florida may get some rain for the early part of next week. As of this moment, we do expect anything more than that. Keep monitoring. 

Invest98L

This feature, now an area of low pressure, has plenty of us a bit worried. It has lots of warm water ahead of it with very little in the atmosphere to prevent it from organizing. NHC's chances for development are up to 90%.

Location: 11.5°N 37.7°W 
Maximum Winds: Under 30 mph with higher gusts
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb or 29.79"

A depression. or a tropical storm could form at any time. 

Where is it Headed?

These are the model runs that have us unnerved. A tropical system may impact, the Leeward Islands, cut across Puerto Rico,  the Virgin Islands, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, and then end up anywhere between the Gulf of Mexico and the Bahamas.  

One step at a time

Lets look at it rationally. I've had texts screaming this is the next Andrew to others suggesting it'll be a fish storm.  Here are the facts.

• Until something actually develops, the models are guesstimating. 
• Everyone in the path of this possible trajectory, should review their plans and supplies. We are almost in the heart of hurricane season so everyone should be ready. 
• Once it forms, a cone will be issued with the best track scenario. This will be our best guide. 
• Keep an eye on intensity forecasting. While the cone has improved over the years, strength forecasting is still lacking. These systems can be impacted by many things that can lead to fluctuations in strength. 
• Everyone should monitor closely.

The entire 7weather team will keep you posted.