Wave to Watch

A vigorous wave is sitting over the Southeastern Bahamas and Turks & Caicos with plenty of rain. It has the potential to develop further as it moves WNW over the following days. This is just one of three areas being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.

As of late Wednesday night, Wave number 1, has high chances for growth, number 2, has fizzled out, and number 3, is holding on with a better chance for organization over the weekend. We will concentrate on the first.

Wave #1

What we know

 The wave extends from the SE Bahamas north into the Atlantic waters.

• It has plenty of moisture and is causing heavy rain in many areas. 
• For the time being, an area of low pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere is sitting over Florida. It will keep the wave from growing. These strong winds act as a blade cutting down the high cloud tops from developing thunderstorms. As long as this is present, the wave will not develop into something stronger. However, that upper low is moving away and it will open the door for the wave to possibly become a depression/storm by the end of the week.  
• Where can the wave develop?  The graphic above shows an area highlighted in red (this is NOT a cone) this is where NHC thinks it could come together during the next 5 days. The bottom line is that it could organize anywhere from the Bahamas to the Gulf of Mexico.
• A recon plane is on stand-by on Thursday to check out this wave.
• The wave has been designated Invest 95L. Invest for an area NHC would like to INVESTigate further, 95 is a tracking number, and "L" stands for the Atlantic Basin.

Models

Most of the very early model runs show high pressure to the East of the wave pushing it towards the northwest. It will be moving over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream and that could allow it to strengthen at anytime.  Keep an eye on a front moving to the southeast, it could trap the system over the Gulf of Mexico pouring rain for a few days. Even if it doesn't develop, many areas across the state will see soggy weather..

Rain Totals

 

A look ahead over 5 days, suggests the NW Bahamas receiving between 2 and 4 inches of rain. This will surely add to their woes.South Florida could get between 1 and almost 4 inches.

The Bottom Line

 

Monitor the wave, it may become a depression by the end of the week. It is poised to drench parts of the Bahamas & South Florida as it crosses into the Gulf of Mexico sometime over the weekend. It may stall along Florida's Big Bend and drench the state.

We'll be watching